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Real output and unit labor costs as predictors of inflation

  • Yash P. Mehra
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    Granger-causality tests used here find that: [1] unit labor costs add no predictive power to inflation forecasts; and [2] the gap between actual and potential output does help predict inflation, but only in the short run.

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    File URL: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/docs/publications/frbrichreview/rev_frbrich199007.pdf
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    Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its journal Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): (1990)
    Issue (Month): Jul ()
    Pages: 31-39

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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrer:y:1990:i:jul:p:31-39:n:v.76no.4
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    1. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    2. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    3. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
    4. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    5. Gordon, Robert J, 1982. "Price Inertia and Policy Ineffectiveness in the United States, 1890-1980," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1087-1117, December.
    6. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
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