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How Futures Trading Changed Bitcoin Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Galina Hale
  • Arvind Krishnamurthy
  • Marianna Kudlyak
  • Patrick Shultz

Abstract

From Bitcoin?s inception in 2009 through mid-2017, its price remained under $4,000. In the second half of 2017, it climbed dramatically to nearly $20,000, but descended rapidly starting in mid-December. The peak price coincided with the introduction of bitcoin futures trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The rapid run-up and subsequent fall in the price after the introduction of futures does not appear to be a coincidence. Rather, it is consistent with trading behavior that typically accompanies the introduction of futures markets for an asset.

Suggested Citation

  • Galina Hale & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Marianna Kudlyak & Patrick Shultz, 2018. "How Futures Trading Changed Bitcoin Prices," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00163
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aleksander Berentsen & Fabian Schär, 2018. "A Short Introduction to the World of Cryptocurrencies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 100(1), pages 1-16.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2019. "Altcoin-Bitcoin Arbitrage," Papers 1903.06033, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.
    2. Kim, Wonse & Lee, Junseok & Kang, Kyungwon, 2020. "The effects of the introduction of Bitcoin futures on the volatility of Bitcoin returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    3. Yuanyuan (Catherine) Chen, 2021. "Empirical analysis of bitcoin price," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 692-715, October.
    4. Sebastião, Helder & Godinho, Pedro, 2020. "Bitcoin futures: An effective tool for hedging cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    5. Matkovskyy, Roman & Jalan, Akanksha, 2019. "From financial markets to Bitcoin markets: A fresh look at the contagion effect," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 93-97.
    6. Saketh Aleti & Bruce Mizrach, 2021. "Bitcoin spot and futures market microstructure," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 194-225, February.
    7. Helder Miguel Correia Virtuoso Sebastião & Paulo José Osório Rupino Da Cunha & Pedro Manuel Cortesão Godinho, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies and blockchain. Overview and future perspectives," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 21(3), pages 305-342.
    8. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2019. "Altcoin-Bitcoin Arbitrage," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 87-110.
    9. Fan Fang & Carmine Ventre & Michail Basios & Leslie Kanthan & David Martinez-Rego & Fan Wu & Lingbo Li, 2022. "Cryptocurrency trading: a comprehensive survey," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-59, December.
    10. Fan Fang & Carmine Ventre & Michail Basios & Leslie Kanthan & Lingbo Li & David Martinez-Regoband & Fan Wu, 2020. "Cryptocurrency Trading: A Comprehensive Survey," Papers 2003.11352, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    11. Vidal-Tomás, David, 2022. "Which cryptocurrency data sources should scholars use?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Zhang, Chuanhai & Ma, Huan & Arkorful, Gideon Bruce & Peng, Zhe, 2023. "The impacts of futures trading on volatility and volatility asymmetry of Bitcoin returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    13. Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter & Plíhal, Tomáš & Širaňová, Mária, 2020. "Impact of macroeconomic news, regulation and hacking exchange markets on the volatility of bitcoin," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    14. Zhang, Chuanhai & Ma, Huan & Liao, Xiaosai, 2023. "Futures trading activity and the jump risk of spot market: Evidence from the bitcoin market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    15. Goodell, John W. & Goutte, Stephane, 2021. "Diversifying equity with cryptocurrencies during COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    16. Jun Deng & Huifeng Pan & Shuyu Zhang & Bin Zou, 2021. "Optimal Bitcoin trading with inverse futures," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 304(1), pages 139-163, September.
    17. Janson, Nathalie & Karoubi, Bruno, 2021. "The Bitcoin: to be or not to be a Real Currency?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 312-319.
    18. A. V. Biju & Aparna Merin Mathew & P. P. Nithi Krishna & M. P. Akhil, 2022. "Is the future of bitcoin safe? A triangulation approach in the reality of BTC market through a sentiments analysis," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 275-290, December.
    19. Silahli, Baykar & Dingec, Kemal Dincer & Cifter, Atilla & Aydin, Nezir, 2021. "Portfolio value-at-risk with two-sided Weibull distribution: Evidence from cryptocurrency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    20. Dimitrios Koutmos, 2023. "Investor sentiment and bitcoin prices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 1-29, January.
    21. David Vidal-Tomás & Ana M. Ibáñez & José E. Farinós, 2021. "The Effect of the Launch of Bitcoin Futures on the Cryptocurrency Market: An Economic Efficiency Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, February.
    22. Hattori, Takahiro & Ishida, Ryo, 2021. "Did the introduction of Bitcoin futures crash the Bitcoin market at the end of 2017?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    23. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    24. Ahmed Jeribi & Mohamed Fakhfekh, 2021. "Portfolio management and dependence structure between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets: evidence from FIEGARCH-EVT-Copula," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(3), pages 224-239, May.
    25. John W Goodell & Stéphane Goutte, 2020. "Diversifying with cryptocurrencies during COVID-19," Working Papers halshs-02876529, HAL.

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