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Inflation, exchange rate and efficacy of monetary policy in Nigeria: The empirical evidence

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  • BigBen Chukwuma Ogbonna

Abstract

This paper analyses the post SAP persistence of inflation in Nigeria for the period, 1960-2008 with exchange rate, money supply and trade balance as preferred influential variables. To investigate the effect of policy switch from the period of direct instrument to the period of deregulation occasioned by SAP of 1986, we proceed to bifurcate the sample period into two, comprising the period of direct instruments of monetary policy, 1960 – 1985 and the period of indirect instruments of monetary policy, 1986 – 2008. Estimates from a vector auto regression model (VAR) of key macroeconomic variables demonstrate the weak link between money supply and inflation in the both time horizons, which suggests that the hypothesis that money supply is not an effective policy instrument for management of inflationary developments cannot be rejected for Nigeria. The results further suggest that in both time horizons, exchange rate has been identified as a singular most promising macroeconomic fundamental for both internal and external sectors adjustments. However, the deregulation of the domestic economy as occasioned by SAP has significantly diluted the efficacy of exchange rate as a monetary policy instrument for the management of Nigeria’s aggregate money stock and trade balance developments. These notwithstanding, the Central Bank of Nigeria can continue to play a stabilizing role in the economy through the continuation of prudent monetary policies and frequent interventions in exchange rate management to smooth out shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • BigBen Chukwuma Ogbonna, 2016. "Inflation, exchange rate and efficacy of monetary policy in Nigeria: The empirical evidence," Academicus International Scientific Journal, Entrepreneurship Training Center Albania, issue 13, pages 40-53, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:etc:journl:y:2016:i:13:p:40-53
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clarida, Richard H, 2001. "The Empirics of Monetary Policy Rules in Open Economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 315-323, October.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Seymen, Atilim, 2008. "A Critical Note on the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-065, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    4. Song, Chi-Young, 1997. "The Real Exchange Rate and the Current Account Balance in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 143-184, June.
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