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Covid-19 Pandemic Lockdown vs. Business Cycle Clock Registration of New Passenger Cars in European Countries

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  • Tadeusz Kufel

Abstract

Purpose: The aim of this article is to evaluate the impact of the lockdown caused by the Covid-19 pandemic on the economic situation measured by the number of new passenger cars registered in selected European countries. Design/Methodology/Approach: The assessment of economic changes was conducted using a business cycle clock (BCC) using the number of newly registered passenger cars. Use working day and seasonally adjusted - Car registration, a new passenger car monthly series, was estimated with a Hodrick-Prescott filter. Findings: The lockdown caused by the Covid-19 pandemic had a negative impact on the economy measured by newly registered cars. Practical Implications: The varying effects of the lockdown can be evaluated with a business cycle clock. Originality/Value: The study was based on monthly data up to October 2020 and showed the high usefulness of BCC results.

Suggested Citation

  • Tadeusz Kufel, 2021. "Covid-19 Pandemic Lockdown vs. Business Cycle Clock Registration of New Passenger Cars in European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 875-890.
    • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xxiv:y:2021:i:special1:p:875-890
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tadeusz Kufel, 2020. "ARIMA-based forecasting of the dynamics of confirmed Covid-19 cases for selected European countries," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 15(2), pages 181-204, June.
    2. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "The Ifo Business Cycle Clock: Circular Correlation with the Real GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 3179, CESifo.
    3. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 1999. "Estimation of the business cycle: A modified Hodrick-Prescott filter," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 175-206.
    4. Konrad Stanczyk, 2020. "“Anti-Crisis Shield” as an Example of State Interventionism During the Crisis Caused by the Covid-19 Virus Pandemic in Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 116-136.
    5. Martin Gächter & Aleksandra Riedl & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2012. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area and the Impact of the Financial Crisis," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 33-60.
    6. Osińska, Magdalena & Kufel, Tadeusz & Błażejowski, Marcin & Kufel, Paweł, 2015. "Business Cycle Synchronization in EU Economies after the Recession of the Years 2007-2009," MPRA Paper 72888, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    7. Nina Haug & Lukas Geyrhofer & Alessandro Londei & Elma Dervic & Amélie Desvars-Larrive & Vittorio Loreto & Beate Pinior & Stefan Thurner & Peter Klimek, 2020. "Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(12), pages 1303-1312, December.
    8. Pollock, D. S. G., 2000. "Trend estimation and de-trending via rational square-wave filters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 317-334, December.
    9. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jorg, 2006. "How synchronized are new EU member states with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 538-563, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Irena Lacka & Blazej Supron, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Road Freight Transport Evidence from Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 319-333.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lockdown; pandemic; Covid-19; economic crisis; business cycle; business cycle clock; Hodrick-Prescott filter; registration new passenger car.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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