Varianza condicional de medias móviles no-lineales
We present a new heteroskedastic conditional variance model using NonLinear Moving Average as the basis for this specification [NLMACH(q)]. The typical problem of this class of models-i.e., noninvertibility—is solved by means of an intuitive parametric restriction; this allows us to use Maximum Likelihood as the estimation procedure. The statistical properties of the new model are both simple and attractive for empirical purposes in finance: a natural fat-tailed distribution stands out. The Autocorrelation Function of the squared process allows us for identification of the number of lags to be included in the new specification. In addition, we present several Monte Carlo experiments where the properties of the model using finite samples are exhibited. Finally, an empirical application using exchange rates and capital market bonds is shown.
Volume (Year): XXVII (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (November)
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000.
"Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, September.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415, August.
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- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Robinson, P. M., 1977. "The estimation of a nonlinear moving average model," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 81-90, February.
- Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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