Global warming and the future of Pacific Island countries

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to outline the cause of global warming, its trends and consequences as indicated by the International Panel on Climate Change. Sea‐level rise is one consequence of particular concern to Pacific Island states. It also reviews the views of economists about connections between economic growth and global warming. Design/methodology/approach - International efforts, such as through the Kyoto protocol, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and their atmospheric concentration are discussed and prospects for post‐Kyoto policies are considered. Ways are also examined of addressing the consequences of global warming for the Pacific Island states. How they will be affected and to what extent is discussed, together with their ability to cope with the emerging problem. Findings - The paper finds that whereas the majority of economists did not foresee a conflict between economic growth and global warming, the possibility of such a conflict is now more widely recognized following the Stern Report. It is predicted that a significant reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions is unlikely to be achieved in the foreseeable future owing to conflicting national interest (a prisoners' dilemma problem) and because is will take time to develop new technologies which will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, payment for greenhouse gas emissions (for example, via tradable permits) will accelerate desirable technological advance. Both international political action and efforts to develop and use technologies that lower greenhouse gas emissions need to be pursued. Given current and likely increases in greenhouse gas emissions, continuing global warming in this century (and beyond) appears to be inevitable and consequently Pacific Island states will be adversely affected by sea‐level rise and climate change. Originality/value - The paper emphasizes that Pacific Island states will suffer great hardship from global warming but are ill‐placed geographically, financially and administratively to prevent or adjust to the possible environmental disasters that await them. Nothing may save some from eventual environmental annihilation.