IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/caerpp/v3y2011i3p369-382.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The dynamic relationship between agricultural futures and agriculture index in China

Author

Listed:
  • Yu-Shan Wang
  • Chung-Gee Lin
  • Shih-Chieh Shih

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-term and short-term asymmetric effects of the price transmission relationships between agricultural futures and the agriculture index in China. Design/methodology/approach - The paper adopts a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model and momentum-TAR (M-TAR) model that test the prices of futures and spots in the special trading system. Findings - The paper indicates that during different stages of the economic cycle, agricultural futures and the agriculture index exhibit different correlations. During the initial stages of economic upturns and downturns, the addition of futures of agricultural products helps to diversify risk. In contrast, during the late stages of economic upturns and downturns, such additions do not really help to diversify risk. Soybean meal futures and the agriculture index are more strongly correlated with each other. If investors use soybean meal futures to predict the trends in the agriculture index, they will obtain more accurate conclusions. Practical implications - The soybean futures have leading effects in a single range and a lower correlation with the agriculture index. This paper provides a point of reference for investors devising investment strategies and for the Chinese Government in its execution of macro-control policies. It provides a clear review about the estimation methods. It also provides information about China's soybean, soy meal industry. Originality/value - The paper contains updated information about China's soybean and soybean meal trading. It uses new estimation methods (TAR, M-TAR) to examine the co-integration between soybean, soybean meal and the agricultural index.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu-Shan Wang & Chung-Gee Lin & Shih-Chieh Shih, 2011. "The dynamic relationship between agricultural futures and agriculture index in China," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 369-382, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:caerpp:v:3:y:2011:i:3:p:369-382
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/10.1108/17561371111165798?utm_campaign=RePEc&WT.mc_id=RePEc
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    2. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    3. Ng, Serena, 1996. "Looking for evidence of speculative stockholding in commodity markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 123-143.
    4. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
    5. Chatrath, Arjun & Adrangi, Bahram & Dhanda, Kanwalroop Kathy, 2002. "Are commodity prices chaotic?," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 27(2), August.
    6. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-311, July.
    7. Chatrath, Arjun & Adrangi, Bahram & Dhanda, Kanwalroop Kathy, 2002. "Are commodity prices chaotic?," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 123-137, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:caerpp:v:3:y:2011:i:3:p:369-382. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Virginia Chapman). General contact details of provider: http://www.emeraldinsight.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.