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Climate change and heatwaves in the main coastal cities of the Basque Country

Author

Listed:
  • Luis M. Abadie

    (Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3))

  • Marek Smid

    (Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3))

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the probabilistic behaviour of heatwaves (HWs) in the main coastal cities of the Basque Country (Bayonne, Bilbao and Donostia-San Sebastián) in the twentyfirst century. We estimate HW behaviour using data from eight climate circulation models under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5). We model HWs according to three factors: number per annum, duration and intensity, including correlations, and find very different results for each climate model. This highlights the problem of using a single model. Under RCP 8.5, we find an expected mean excess over the 30ºC temperature threshold of 4.19ºC for Bayonne, 4.05ºC for Bilbao and 4.14ºC for Donostia-San Sebastián in 2100. These expected values are based on incomplete information, so we also calculate several risk measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis M. Abadie & Marek Smid, 2020. "Climate change and heatwaves in the main coastal cities of the Basque Country," EKONOMIAZ. Revista vasca de Economía, Gobierno Vasco / Eusko Jaurlaritza / Basque Government, vol. 97(01), pages 165-189.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekz:ekonoz:2020107
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nikolaos Christidis & Gareth S. Jones & Peter A. Stott, 2015. "Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 46-50, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; heatwaves; representative concentration pathways; risk; stochastic diffusion modelling; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects

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