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Predicción de fracaso empresarial en empresas de Argentina, Chile y Perú a través de indicadores contables

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  • Caro, Norma Patricia

Abstract

[ES] Desde mediados de siglo pasado las empresas se han planteado como objetivo, entre otros, evaluar el accionar de quienes las gerencian, para predecir, a mediano plazo,estados de vulnerabilidad financiera. En este trabajo confluyen tres investigaciones en las que se construyen modelos de predicción de riesgo en base a la información contenida en los estados contables de las empresas con oferta pública en la Bolsa de Valores de Buenos Aires (Argentina), de Lima (Perú) y de Santiago (Chile), para cada mercado, en la década del 2000. Se utilizan los modelos mixtos, que tienen en cuenta la heterogeneidad no observada y superan ampliamente el desempeño del modelo logístico estándar. Los resultados indican que para los tres países, los índices de rentabilidad, de flujo de fondos operativos y de endeudamiento constituyen factores comunes para la predicción de crisis financiera.

Suggested Citation

  • Caro, Norma Patricia, 2016. "Predicción de fracaso empresarial en empresas de Argentina, Chile y Perú a través de indicadores contables," Revista de Dirección y Administración de Empresas, Universidad del País Vasco - Escuela Universitaria de Estudios Empresariales de San Sebastián.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehu:rdadme:20341
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    File URL: https://addi.ehu.es/handle/10810/20341
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
    2. Grice, John Stephen & Dugan, Michael T, 2001. "The Limitations of Bankruptcy Prediction Models: Some Cautions for the Researcher," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 151-166, September.
    3. Felipe Zurita, 2008. "La Predicción de la Insolvencia de Empresas Chilenas," Documentos de Trabajo 336, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    4. repec:bla:joares:v:18:y:1980:i:1:p:109-131 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ratios contables; crisis financiera; modelos mixtos; economías latinoamericanas;

    JEL classification:

    • M4 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics

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