Intermodal container terminal location and capacity design with decentralized flow estimation

This paper studies an intermodal container terminal (IMT) location and design problem, where the IMT operator wants to locate a set of open-access IMTs and design their capacity levels to maximize its profit. Following the IMT operator’s decisions, network users, responsible for container transportation, will independently choose their routes and may procure intermodal services from the IMT operator. Since only limited information is available before the existence of the network, we employ the entropy maximization principle as a least-biased approach to estimate the flow distribution resulting from the network users’ route choices. This enables the IMT operator to predict profit and evaluate the quality of its network design decisions. We formulate the problem as a mixed-integer bilevel nonlinear program, automatically embedding a decentralized flow estimation scheme into the optimization of IMT location and capacity design. By exploring the rationale behind the entropy maximization principle, our problem can also be interpreted as a leader–follower game, in which the IMT operator (as the leader) aims to maximize its profit and the network users (as the follower) maximize their welfare. Due to the bilevel structure and the nonlinear entropy function, the problem is extremely changeling. To support its application in real-world contexts, we propose both exact and approximation algorithms. Finally, we conduct a real-world case study on Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area and draw managerial implications.