IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

A hybrid-choice latent-class model for the analysis of the effects of weather on cycling demand


  • Motoaki, Yutaka
  • Daziano, Ricardo A.


In this paper we analyze demand for cycling using a discrete choice model with latent variables and a discrete heterogeneity distribution for the taste parameters. More specifically, we use a hybrid choice model where latent variables not only enter into utility but also inform assignment to latent classes. Using a discrete choice experiment we analyze the effects of weather (temperature, rain, and snow), cycling time, slope, cycling facilities (bike lanes), and traffic on cycling decisions by members of Cornell University (in an area with cold and snowy winters and hilly topography). We show that cyclists can be separated into two segments based on a latent factor that summarizes cycling skills and experience. Specifically, cyclists with more skills and experience are less affected by adverse weather conditions. By deriving the median of the ratio of the marginal rate of substitution for the two classes, we show that rain deters cyclists with lower skills from bicycling 2.5 times more strongly than those with better cycling skills. The median effects also show that snow is almost 4 times more deterrent to the class of less experienced cyclists. We also model the effect of external restrictions (accidents, crime, mechanical problems) and physical condition as latent factors affecting cycling choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Motoaki, Yutaka & Daziano, Ricardo A., 2015. "A hybrid-choice latent-class model for the analysis of the effects of weather on cycling demand," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 217-230.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:75:y:2015:i:c:p:217-230
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2015.03.017

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Walker, Joan & Ben-Akiva, Moshe, 2002. "Generalized random utility model," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 303-343, July.
    2. Pucher, John & Buehler, Ralph, 2006. "Why Canadians cycle more than Americans: A comparative analysis of bicycling trends and policies," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 265-279, May.
    3. J. Hunt & J. Abraham, 2007. "Influences on bicycle use," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 453-470, July.
    4. Daniel McFadden, 2001. "Economic Choices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 351-378, June.
    5. Sallis, James F. & Frank, Lawrence D. & Saelens, Brian E. & Kraft, M. Katherine, 2004. "Active transportation and physical activity: opportunities for collaboration on transportation and public health research," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 249-268, May.
    6. Pucher, John & Buehler, Ralph & Seinen, Mark, 2011. "Bicycling renaissance in North America? An update and re-appraisal of cycling trends and policies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 451-475, July.
    7. Hurtubia, Ricardo & Nguyen, My Hang & Glerum, Aurélie & Bierlaire, Michel, 2014. "Integrating psychometric indicators in latent class choice models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 135-146.
    8. Bhat, Chandra R. & Dubey, Subodh K. & Nagel, Kai, 2015. "Introducing non-normality of latent psychological constructs in choice modeling with an application to bicyclist route choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 341-363.
    9. Ben-Akiva, Moshe & McFadden, Daniel & Train, Kenneth & Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2002. "Hybrid Choice Models: Progress and Challenges," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 02-29, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    10. repec:eee:jotrge:v:31:y:2013:i:c:p:132-142 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Rotaris, Lucia & Danielis, Romeo, 2014. "The impact of transportation demand management policies on commuting to college facilities: A case study at the University of Trieste, Italy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 127-140.
    12. Ipek Sener & Naveen Eluru & Chandra Bhat, 2009. "An analysis of bicycle route choice preferences in Texas, US," Transportation, Springer, vol. 36(5), pages 511-539, September.
    13. Shannon, Tya & Giles-Corti, Billie & Pikora, Terri & Bulsara, Max & Shilton, Trevor & Bull, Fiona, 2006. "Active commuting in a university setting: Assessing commuting habits and potential for modal change," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 240-253, May.
    14. Li, Zhibin & Wang, Wei & Yang, Chen & Ragland, David R., 2013. "Bicycle commuting market analysis using attitudinal market segmentation approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 56-68.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:transa:v:123:y:2019:i:c:p:269-287 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:transa:v:111:y:2018:i:c:p:277-291 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bouscasse, H. & Bonnel, P., 2016. "Socio-psychological determinants of mode choice habits," Working Papers 2016-05, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
    4. repec:eee:transa:v:103:y:2017:i:c:p:311-326 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Biehl, Alec & Chen, Ying & Sanabria-Véaz, Karla & Uttal, David & Stathopoulos, Amanda, 2019. "Where does active travel fit within local community narratives of mobility space and place?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 269-287.
    6. repec:kap:transp:v:46:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11116-017-9830-y is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:transa:v:116:y:2018:i:c:p:166-177 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:eee:eejocm:v:25:y:2017:i:c:p:28-39 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:eee:trapol:v:77:y:2019:i:c:p:30-45 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:eee:transa:v:111:y:2018:i:c:p:252-265 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:eee:ecanpo:v:61:y:2019:i:c:p:104-110 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Yazdanpanah, Mahdi & Hosseinlou, Mansour Hadji, 2016. "The influence of personality traits on airport public transport access mode choice: A hybrid latent class choice modeling approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 147-163.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:75:y:2015:i:c:p:217-230. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.