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A hybrid-choice latent-class model for the analysis of the effects of weather on cycling demand

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  • Motoaki, Yutaka
  • Daziano, Ricardo A.

Abstract

In this paper we analyze demand for cycling using a discrete choice model with latent variables and a discrete heterogeneity distribution for the taste parameters. More specifically, we use a hybrid choice model where latent variables not only enter into utility but also inform assignment to latent classes. Using a discrete choice experiment we analyze the effects of weather (temperature, rain, and snow), cycling time, slope, cycling facilities (bike lanes), and traffic on cycling decisions by members of Cornell University (in an area with cold and snowy winters and hilly topography). We show that cyclists can be separated into two segments based on a latent factor that summarizes cycling skills and experience. Specifically, cyclists with more skills and experience are less affected by adverse weather conditions. By deriving the median of the ratio of the marginal rate of substitution for the two classes, we show that rain deters cyclists with lower skills from bicycling 2.5 times more strongly than those with better cycling skills. The median effects also show that snow is almost 4 times more deterrent to the class of less experienced cyclists. We also model the effect of external restrictions (accidents, crime, mechanical problems) and physical condition as latent factors affecting cycling choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Motoaki, Yutaka & Daziano, Ricardo A., 2015. "A hybrid-choice latent-class model for the analysis of the effects of weather on cycling demand," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 217-230.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:75:y:2015:i:c:p:217-230
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2015.03.017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. repec:eee:transa:v:111:y:2018:i:c:p:277-291 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bouscasse, H. & Bonnel, P., 2016. "Socio-psychological determinants of mode choice habits," Working Papers 2016-05, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
    4. repec:eee:transa:v:103:y:2017:i:c:p:311-326 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Biehl, Alec & Chen, Ying & Sanabria-Véaz, Karla & Uttal, David & Stathopoulos, Amanda, 2019. "Where does active travel fit within local community narratives of mobility space and place?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 269-287.
    6. repec:kap:transp:v:46:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11116-017-9830-y is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:transa:v:116:y:2018:i:c:p:166-177 is not listed on IDEAS
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    10. repec:eee:transa:v:111:y:2018:i:c:p:252-265 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:eee:ecanpo:v:61:y:2019:i:c:p:104-110 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Yazdanpanah, Mahdi & Hosseinlou, Mansour Hadji, 2016. "The influence of personality traits on airport public transport access mode choice: A hybrid latent class choice modeling approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 147-163.

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