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How will the opening of the Northern Sea Route influence the Suez Canal Route? An empirical analysis with discrete choice models

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  • Wang, Hua
  • Zhang, Yiru
  • Meng, Qiang

Abstract

The Arctic ice has been observed to be decreasing both in terms of extent and thickness since the 1950s in all seasons due to global warming. The retreat of the Arctic sea ice creates unprecedented opportunities to maritime shipping industry and opens the door for exploring new navigable shipping routes across the Arctic Ocean. The Northern Sea Route is of particular interest as it has the most favorable ice conditions among all transarctic routes and the Russia government has been actively encouraging international use of the sea route. This paper aims to quantitatively assess the impact of opening of the Northern Sea Route on the Suez Canal Route by means of discrete choice model. Industrial preferences and choices under different situations are gathered by a state preference survey. Logit models are then built based on choice data from the survey. Based on modeling results, scenario analyses are conducted to predict company’s choices under difference cases and thus some policy insights are put forward.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Hua & Zhang, Yiru & Meng, Qiang, 2018. "How will the opening of the Northern Sea Route influence the Suez Canal Route? An empirical analysis with discrete choice models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 75-89.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:107:y:2018:i:c:p:75-89
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2017.11.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Liu, ChengCheng & Lian, Feng & Yang, Zhongzhen, 2021. "Comparing the minimal costs of Arctic container shipping between China and Europe: A network schemes perspective," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    3. Yu. V. Pankova & O. V. Tarasova, 2020. "On Scenarios of Development of the Arctic Economy and Navigation," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 514-521, September.
    4. Sung-Woo Lee & Jisung Jo & Sewon Kim, 2021. "Leveraging the 4th Industrial Revolution Technology for Sustainable Development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR)—The Case Study of Autonomous Vessel," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-12, July.
    5. Benz, Lukas & Münch, Christopher & Hartmann, Evi, 2021. "Fuzzy-based decision analysis on Arctic transportation: A guidance for freight shipping companies," Chapters from the Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Logistics (HICL), in: Jahn, Carlos & Kersten, Wolfgang & Ringle, Christian M. (ed.), Adapting to the Future: Maritime and City Logistics in the Context of Digitalization and Sustainability. Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conf, volume 32, pages 375-400, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute of Business Logistics and General Management.
    6. L. G. Karanatova & A. Yu. Kulev, 2022. "Socio-Economic Development of the Arctic: Modern Challenges and Priorities," Administrative Consulting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. North-West Institute of Management., issue 2.
    7. Zhu, Siying & Jia, Shuai & Sun, Qinghe & Meng, Qiang, 2023. "An empirical study of China–Singapore International Land–Sea Trade Corridor: Analysis from supply and demand sides," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 1-10.
    8. Koçak, Saim Turgut & Yercan, Funda, 2021. "Comparative cost-effectiveness analysis of Arctic and international shipping routes: A Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 147-164.
    9. Theocharis, Dimitrios & Pettit, Stephen & Rodrigues, Vasco Sanchez & Haider, Jane, 2018. "Arctic shipping: A systematic literature review of comparative studies," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-128.
    10. Zheng, Jianfeng & Zhang, Wenlong & Qi, Jingwen & Wang, Shuaian, 2019. "Canal effects on a liner hub location problem," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 230-247.
    11. Xu, Hua & Yin, Zhifang, 2021. "The optimal icebreaking tariffs and the economic performance of tramp shipping on the Northern Sea Route," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 76-97.

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