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Black lives matter: Differential mortality and the racial composition of the U.S. electorate, 1970–2004

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  • Rodriguez, Javier M.
  • Geronimus, Arline T.
  • Bound, John
  • Dorling, Danny

Abstract

Excess mortality in marginalized populations could be both a cause and an effect of political processes. We estimate the impact of mortality differentials between blacks and whites from 1970 to 2004 on the racial composition of the electorate in the US general election of 2004 and in close statewide elections during the study period. We analyze 73 million US deaths from the Multiple Cause of Death files to calculate: (1) Total excess deaths among blacks between 1970 and 2004, (2) total hypothetical survivors to 2004, (3) the probability that survivors would have turned out to vote in 2004, (4) total black votes lost in 2004, and (5) total black votes lost by each presidential candidate. We estimate 2.7 million excess black deaths between 1970 and 2004. Of those, 1.9 million would have survived until 2004, of which over 1.7 million would have been of voting-age. We estimate that 1 million black votes were lost in 2004; of these, 900,000 votes were lost by the defeated Democratic presidential nominee. We find that many close state-level elections over the study period would likely have had different outcomes if voting age blacks had the mortality profiles of whites. US black voting rights are also eroded through felony disenfranchisement laws and other measures that dampen the voice of the US black electorate. Systematic disenfranchisement by population group yields an electorate that is unrepresentative of the full interests of the citizenry and affects the chance that elected officials have mandates to eliminate health inequality.

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  • Rodriguez, Javier M. & Geronimus, Arline T. & Bound, John & Dorling, Danny, 2015. "Black lives matter: Differential mortality and the racial composition of the U.S. electorate, 1970–2004," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 136, pages 193-199.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:136-137:y:2015:i::p:193-199
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2015.04.014
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bilal, Usama & Knapp, Emily A. & Cooper, Richard S., 2018. "Swing voting in the 2016 presidential election in counties where midlife mortality has been rising in white non-Hispanic Americans," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 33-38.
    3. Kawachi, Ichiro & Subramanian, S.V., 2018. "Social epidemiology for the 21st century," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 240-245.
    4. Mershon, Carol, 2020. "What effect do local political elites have on infant and child death? Elected and chiefly authority in South Africa," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    5. Gollust, Sarah E. & Haselswerdt, Jake, 2023. "Who does COVID-19 hurt most? Perceptions of unequal impact and political implications," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    6. Rodriguez, Javier M., 2018. "Health disparities, politics, and the maintenance of the status quo: A new theory of inequality," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 36-43.
    7. Shervin Assari & James Smith & Ritesh Mistry & Mehdi Farokhnia & Mohsen Bazargan, 2019. "Substance Use among Economically Disadvantaged African American Older Adults; Objective and Subjective Socioeconomic Status," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-16, May.
    8. Giacomo DiPasquale & Matthew Gomies & Javier M. Rodriguez, 2021. "Race and class patterns of income inequality during postrecession periods," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2812-2823, November.
    9. Ye, Wei & Rodriguez, Javier M., 2021. "Highly vulnerable communities and the Affordable Care Act: Health insurance coverage effects, 2010–2018," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).

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