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Statistical bivariate modelling of wind using first-order Markov chain and Weibull distribution

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  • Ettoumi, F.Youcef
  • Sauvageot, H
  • Adane, A.-E.-H

Abstract

This paper studies the statistical features of the wind at Oran (Algeria). The data used are the wind speed and wind direction measurements collected every 3 h at the meteorological station of Es Senia (Oran), during the 1982/92 period. The eight directions of the compass card have been considered to build the frequency distribution of the wind speed for each month of the year and each direction. The three-hourly wind data have been modelled by means of Markov chains. First-order nine-state Markov chains are found to fit well the wind direction data, whereas the related wind speed data are well fitted by first-order three-state Markov chains. The Weibull probability distribution function has also been considered and found to fit the monthly frequency distributions of wind speed measurements. Two methods of wind data retrieval are thus made available. In fact, two models of chronological bi-series are obtained describing wind speed and wind direction.

Suggested Citation

  • Ettoumi, F.Youcef & Sauvageot, H & Adane, A.-E.-H, 2003. "Statistical bivariate modelling of wind using first-order Markov chain and Weibull distribution," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 1787-1802.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:28:y:2003:i:11:p:1787-1802
    DOI: 10.1016/S0960-1481(03)00019-3
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    4. D׳Amico, Guglielmo & Petroni, Filippo & Prattico, Flavio, 2015. "Reliability measures for indexed semi-Markov chains applied to wind energy production," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 170-177.
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    12. Diaf, S. & Notton, G., 2013. "Technical and economic analysis of large-scale wind energy conversion systems in Algeria," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 37-51.
    13. Ma, Jinrui & Fouladirad, Mitra & Grall, Antoine, 2018. "Flexible wind speed generation model: Markov chain with an embedded diffusion process," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 316-328.
    14. Shamshad, A. & Bawadi, M.A. & Wan Hussin, W.M.A. & Majid, T.A. & Sanusi, S.A.M., 2005. "First and second order Markov chain models for synthetic generation of wind speed time series," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 693-708.
    15. Nuño Martinez, Edgar & Cutululis, Nicolaos & Sørensen, Poul, 2018. "High dimensional dependence in power systems: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 197-213.
    16. Chellali, Farouk & Khellaf, Adballah & Belouchrani, Adel & Recioui, Abdelmadjid, 2011. "A contribution in the actualization of wind map of Algeria," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 993-1002, February.
    17. Kim, Taewan & Song, Jeonghwan & You, Donghyun, 2024. "Optimization of a wind farm layout to mitigate the wind power intermittency," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 367(C).
    18. Evans, S.P. & Clausen, P.D., 2015. "Modelling of turbulent wind flow using the embedded Markov chain method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 671-678.
    19. Kantz, Holger & Holstein, Detlef & Ragwitz, Mario & K. Vitanov, Nikolay, 2004. "Markov chain model for turbulent wind speed data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 342(1), pages 315-321.
    20. Carta, J.A. & Ramírez, P. & Velázquez, S., 2009. "A review of wind speed probability distributions used in wind energy analysis: Case studies in the Canary Islands," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 933-955, June.
    21. Xu, Fei & Wu, Xianhua & Zhang, Ruihua, 2025. "Study of wind speed and direction at Yangshan Port," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    22. Saleh, H. & Abou El-Azm Aly, A. & Abdel-Hady, S., 2012. "Assessment of different methods used to estimate Weibull distribution parameters for wind speed in Zafarana wind farm, Suez Gulf, Egypt," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 710-719.
    23. Jae Ho Kim & Warren B. Powell, 2011. "Optimal Energy Commitments with Storage and Intermittent Supply," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(6), pages 1347-1360, December.
    24. Kerkhove, L.-P. & Vanhoucke, M., 2017. "Optimised scheduling for weather sensitive offshore construction projects," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 66(PA), pages 58-78.
    25. Youcef Ettoumi, Fatiha & Adane, Abd El Hamid & Benzaoui, Mohamed Lassaad & Bouzergui, Nabila, 2008. "Comparative simulation of wind park design and siting in Algeria," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 2333-2338.

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