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Model predictive control of energy pile-based space heating and cooling systems under future weather conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Ma, Qijie
  • Lu, Jianbo
  • Jia, Jiandong
  • Fan, Jianhua

Abstract

The energy pile technology emerges as a green solution to meeting the thermal demands of buildings. The ongoing global warming and the resultant changes in weather conditions cause uncertainty in the performance of energy pile-based systems. To appreciate the uncertainty, the adaptability to future weather conditions of an energy pile-based system with solar thermal utilisation was evaluated in this study. The hypothetical energy pile-based system consisted of 360 energy piles. It was designed to satisfy the thermal demands of a building in a cold area of China, with a total heating/cooling area of 31500 m2. Six hundred forty cases were analysed under future weather conditions covering various socio-economic evolutions from green to fossil-fuelled development. Two future timeframes, 2050 (2036–2065) and 2080 (2066–2095), were considered. Conventional rule-based control and model predictive control were compared for cases with dry or saturated ground conditions. The results showed that some decline in the system's annual performance factor, with a maximum value of about 2.2 %, occurred under future weather conditions compared to baseline weather conditions. What is encouraging is that both the saturated ground conditions and the model predictive control contributed to improving the system's adaptability to changes in weather conditions. The model predictive control improved the system's annual performance factor by 4.8 %–7.5 % compared to the rule-based control because more degrees of control freedom were optimised in real time. The results also showed that the model predictive control performed even better for cases in saturated ground than those in dry ground. Overall, this study provides guidance on the optimal design and operation control of energy pile-based systems to better account for the uncertainty inherent in future weather conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ma, Qijie & Lu, Jianbo & Jia, Jiandong & Fan, Jianhua, 2026. "Model predictive control of energy pile-based space heating and cooling systems under future weather conditions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:256:y:2026:i:pb:s0960148125016015
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.123937
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    References listed on IDEAS

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