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Operational day-ahead solar power forecasting for aggregated PV systems with a varying spatial distribution

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  • Visser, Lennard
  • AlSkaif, Tarek
  • van Sark, Wilfried

Abstract

Accurate forecasts of the power production of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems are essential to support grid operation and enable a high PV penetration rate in the electricity grid. In this study, we analyse the performance of 12 different models that forecast the day-ahead power production in agreement with market conditions. These models include regression, support vector regression, ensemble learning, deep learning and physical based techniques. In addition, we examine the effect of aggregating multiple PV systems with a varying inter-system distance on the forecast model performance. The models are evaluated both on their technical and economic performance. From a technical perspective, the results show a positive effect from both an increasing inter-system distance and a larger sized PV fleet on the model performance, which was not the case for the economic assessment. Furthermore, the ensemble and deep learning models perform better than the alternatives from a technical point of view. For the economic assessment, the results indicate the superiority of the physical based model, followed by the deep learning models. Lastly, our findings show the importance of considering the user's objective when assessing solar power forecast models.

Suggested Citation

  • Visser, Lennard & AlSkaif, Tarek & van Sark, Wilfried, 2022. "Operational day-ahead solar power forecasting for aggregated PV systems with a varying spatial distribution," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 267-282.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:183:y:2022:i:c:p:267-282
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2021.10.102
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    11. Sarmas, Elissaios & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Stamatopoulos, Efstathios & Marinakis, Vangelis & Doukas, Haris, 2023. "Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting using meta-learning and numerical weather prediction independent Long Short-Term Memory models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
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    14. Markovics, Dávid & Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Comparison of machine learning methods for photovoltaic power forecasting based on numerical weather prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    15. Sabadus, Andreea & Blaga, Robert & Hategan, Sergiu-Mihai & Calinoiu, Delia & Paulescu, Eugenia & Mares, Oana & Boata, Remus & Stefu, Nicoleta & Paulescu, Marius & Badescu, Viorel, 2024. "A cross-sectional survey of deterministic PV power forecasting: Progress and limitations in current approaches," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    16. Adam Krechowicz & Maria Krechowicz & Katarzyna Poczeta, 2022. "Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-41, December.
    17. Li, Baojie & Chen, Xin & Jain, Anubhav, 2024. "Power modeling of degraded PV systems: Case studies using a dynamically updated physical model (PV-Pro)," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    18. Feng, Zhong-kai & Huang, Qing-qing & Niu, Wen-jing & Yang, Tao & Wang, Jia-yang & Wen, Shi-ping, 2022. "Multi-step-ahead solar output time series prediction with gate recurrent unit neural network using data decomposition and cooperation search algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    19. Yang, Dazhi & Wang, Wenting & Gueymard, Christian A. & Hong, Tao & Kleissl, Jan & Huang, Jing & Perez, Marc J. & Perez, Richard & Bright, Jamie M. & Xia, Xiang’ao & van der Meer, Dennis & Peters, Ian , 2022. "A review of solar forecasting, its dependence on atmospheric sciences and implications for grid integration: Towards carbon neutrality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    20. Jérémy Macaire & Sara Zermani & Laurent Linguet, 2023. "New Feature Selection Approach for Photovoltaïc Power Forecasting Using KCDE," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-13, September.
    21. Gandhi, Oktoviano & Zhang, Wenjie & Kumar, Dhivya Sampath & Rodríguez-Gallegos, Carlos D. & Yagli, Gokhan Mert & Yang, Dazhi & Reindl, Thomas & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2024. "The value of solar forecasts and the cost of their errors: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
    22. Haider, Syed Altan & Sajid, Muhammad & Sajid, Hassan & Uddin, Emad & Ayaz, Yasar, 2022. "Deep learning and statistical methods for short- and long-term solar irradiance forecasting for Islamabad," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 51-60.
    23. Visser, L.R. & AlSkaif, T.A. & Khurram, A. & Kleissl, J. & van Sark, W.G.H.J.M., 2024. "Probabilistic solar power forecasting: An economic and technical evaluation of an optimal market bidding strategy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 370(C).

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