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A novel reliability method for assessing dam slope stability by incorporating intrinsic correlations of rockfill materials

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  • Yang, Haoran
  • Chen, Chen
  • Zhao, Wenjian
  • Lu, Xiang
  • Zhang, Pengtao
  • Xue, Jianghan

Abstract

Recently, slope reliability analysis based on probabilistic theory has advanced, most of which treat material properties solely as independent variables. However, the physical and mechanical parameters of rockfill are highly interrelated, ignoring these correlations can yield in inaccurate assessments of slope stability. Therefore, a novel method incorporating intrinsic correlation between material parameters for slope reliability analysis is proposed. Initially, the statistical characteristics of 36 rockfill dams in China are analyzed to determine the best marginal distribution for each Duncan-Chang E-B model parameter using the Akaike Information Criterion. The Kendall rank correlation coefficient is then used to reveal the relationships between the parameters, based on which a multidimensional joint probability model can be established by vine copula. Finally, the surrogate model of the performance function is developed, facilitating the slope reliability analysis that incorporates intrinsic correlations. The method is applied to the DL high rockfill dam, and results indicate that neglecting intrinsic correlations increases the slope failure probability and reduces the dam slope stability, resulting in overly conservative designs. In contrast, considering interrelationships provides a more accurate representation of practical scenarios and avoids the parameter distortion.

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  • Yang, Haoran & Chen, Chen & Zhao, Wenjian & Lu, Xiang & Zhang, Pengtao & Xue, Jianghan, 2025. "A novel reliability method for assessing dam slope stability by incorporating intrinsic correlations of rockfill materials," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:259:y:2025:i:c:s0951832025001644
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.110961
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Peng, Ming & Gan, Longhou & Zhong, Qiming & Yang, Ge & Deng, Gang & Cao, Zijun & Shi, Zhenming, 2025. "Time-dependent system reliability analysis of a high concrete-faced rockfill dam by integrating multi-source monitoring information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    8. Wu, Yinwang & Li, Weiye & Wu, Zhenyu, 2026. "Slope reliability analysis of high rockfill dams considering stress-coupled spatial variability of friction angle," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 265(PA).
    9. Luo, Hongyu & Zhang, Limin & He, Jian & Zhou, Jiawen, 2025. "Uncertainty evaluation of the debris flow impact considering spatially varying basal friction and solid concentration," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).

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