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A decision diagram method for phased-mission systems with probabilistic cascading failures

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  • Wu, Zhitao
  • Chen, Qian
  • Wang, Yujie
  • Wang, Chaonan
  • Rong, Wenjing

Abstract

This paper proposes a hybrid method that combines binary decision diagrams (BDDs) and multi-valued decision diagrams (MDDs) to analyze the reliability of phased-mission systems (PMSs) affected by cascading probabilistic common cause failures. In this context, the occurrence of an internal or external common cause can trigger the failures of multiple components simultaneously, each with different probabilities. Furthermore, the failure of one component can lead to a domino effect, causing additional failures in other components. Compared with the conventional BDD methods and MDD methods, the BDD-MDD hybrid method reduces the model size generated and enhances the analysis efficiency. The proposed method is applicable to arbitrary time-to-failure distributions for PMS components. A detailed case of smart home system is performed to illustrate the applications of the proposed method. The correctness of the proposed method is verified by Monte Carlo simulations and the complexity of the method is also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Zhitao & Chen, Qian & Wang, Yujie & Wang, Chaonan & Rong, Wenjing, 2025. "A decision diagram method for phased-mission systems with probabilistic cascading failures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:256:y:2025:i:c:s095183202400749x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110678
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    References listed on IDEAS

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