IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v248y2024ics0951832024002448.html

A probabilistic analysis method for evaluating the safety & resilience of urban gas pipeline network

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Xing-lin
  • Huang, Zong-hou
  • Ge, Fan-liang
  • Lin, Wei-dong
  • Yang, Fu-qiang

Abstract

Urban gas pipeline networks (UGPN) provide important support for high-quality urbanization. Therefore, it is imperative to analyze and assess the potential failures of UGPN. A novel probabilistic analysis method is proposed for assessing the safety and resilience of UGPN. Firstly, Bow-Tie analysis is used to identify faults. Then, a four-dimensional resilience assessment network is developed. Bayesian network is utilized to model the relationship between the variables, while dynamic Bayesian network is used to consider the dynamic nature of the system. The results of the study show that the proposed model can accurately estimate faults, consequences, and influence paths. Furthermore, the resilience analysis shows that monitoring the objective conditions is crucial and that the initial failure probability of the UGPN decreases from 0.03767 % to 0.01435 % when connected to a resilience network, indicating that considering resilience can effectively improve the reliability and safety of the UGPN. Two application examples are presented in the paper to validate the functionality of the proposed model. The proposed model can be used to set the state of UGPN to predict the probability of occurrence of a specific event and its consequences and to simulate the improvement trend of UGPN based on the direction of focus of future work.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Xing-lin & Huang, Zong-hou & Ge, Fan-liang & Lin, Wei-dong & Yang, Fu-qiang, 2024. "A probabilistic analysis method for evaluating the safety & resilience of urban gas pipeline network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:248:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024002448
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110170
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832024002448
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2024.110170?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Xin & Chen, Chao & Hong, Yi-du & Yang, Fu-qiang, 2023. "Exploring hazardous chemical explosion accidents with association rules and Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    2. Lanzano, Giovanni & Salzano, Ernesto & de Magistris, Filippo Santucci & Fabbrocino, Giovanni, 2013. "Seismic vulnerability of natural gas pipelines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 73-80.
    3. Kammouh, Omar & Gardoni, Paolo & Cimellaro, Gian Paolo, 2020. "Probabilistic framework to evaluate the resilience of engineering systems using Bayesian and dynamic Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    4. Chen, Yinuo & Xie, Shuyi & Tian, Zhigang, 2022. "Risk assessment of buried gas pipelines based on improved cloud-variable weight theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    5. Baikang Zhu & Xu Yang & Jun Wang & Chuanhui Shao & Fei Li & Bingyuan Hong & Debin Song & Jian Guo, 2022. "Third-Party Damage Model of a Natural Gas Pipeline Based on a Bayesian Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-12, August.
    6. Chen, Xing-lin & Yu, Long-xing & Lin, Wei-dong & Yang, Fu-qiang & Li, Yi-ping & Tao, Jing & Cheng, Shuo, 2023. "Urban resilience assessment from the multidimensional perspective using dynamic Bayesian network: A case study of Fujian Province, China," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    7. Xirong Bi & Jingxian Wu & Cheng Sun & Kun Ji, 2022. "Resilience-Based Repair Strategy for Gas Network System and Water Network System in Urban City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-15, March.
    8. Liu, Wei & Song, Zhaoyang, 2020. "Review of studies on the resilience of urban critical infrastructure networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    9. Yang, Yang & Li, Suzhen & Zhang, Pengcheng, 2022. "Data-driven accident consequence assessment on urban gas pipeline network based on machine learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Ruochen & Schell, Colin A. & Rayasam, Dhruva & Groth, Katrina M., 2025. "Hydrogen impact on transmission pipeline risk: Probabilistic analysis of failure causes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 257(PA).
    2. Tan, Qiong & Fu, Ming & Wang, Zhengxing & Yuan, Hongyong & Sun, Jinhua, 2024. "A real-time early warning classification method for natural gas leakage based on random forest," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    3. Sharveen, Sumaya & Shahandashti, Mohsen, 2026. "Towards an integrated, explainable, and computationally efficient metamodel-based optimization framework for seismic rehabilitation planning of gas pipeline networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 267(PA).
    4. Qiao, Xinzhu & Xie, Qiang, 2025. "Resource allocation for rapid post-earthquake recovery of substations based on resilience assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 264(PA).
    5. Zhai, Mingda & Li, TieLin & Li, Xinwei & Sun, Yougang, 2026. "A safety evaluation method based on gating model & generalized zero-shot learning for industrial process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 265(PA).
    6. Zelmati, Djamel & Bouledroua, Omar & Ghelloudj, Oualid & Harouz, Riad, 2025. "Advanced statistical analysis and system reliability assessment of API 5L steel pipelines subjected to corrosion attack," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 264(PA).
    7. Rafew, S. M. & Kabir, Golam, 2026. "Application of interactive threat matrix induced system dynamics model to determine risk probability and resilient policy measures for CO2 pipelines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    8. Men, Jinkun & Lu, Hongfang & Cheng, Y. Frank, 2026. "Continuous time-dependent system resilience evolution behaviors of hazardous energy systems subjected to cascading disaster chains," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 267(PB).
    9. Chen, Qian & Yang, Kai & Yan, Jing & Varbanov, Petar Sabev & Wang, Bohong & Friedler, Ferenc & Zuo, Lili & Xing, Xiaokai, 2025. "Short-period supply reliability evaluation of a gas pipeline network based on transient operation optimization and support vector regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    10. Wu, Siyuan & Chen, Junhan & Xie, Qiang, 2025. "Dynamic Bayesian network-based seismic resilience evaluation for ±800kV UHV converter stations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 264(PB).
    11. Zhong, Dan & Huang, Chaoyuan & Ma, Wencheng & Deng, Liming & Zhou, Jinbo & Xia, Ying, 2025. "Enhanced prediction of pipe failure through transient simulation-aided logistic regression," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    12. Wang, Yihuan & Zhang, Chao & Zhang, Zhengwei & Hou, Xiangqin & Xin, Jiaxing & Qin, Guojin, 2026. "Competing multimode-informed reliability evolution of blended-hydrogen natural gas pipelines with crack-in-corrosion defects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 265(PB).
    13. Zhao, Yulan & Ma, Xiaoxue & Qiao, Weiliang & Zhang, Jianqi, 2025. "Resilient maritime transportation system from the perspective of FRAM: conceptualization and assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    14. Li, Runquan & Li, Xinhong & Salim, Ahmed, 2026. "Intelligent prediction of flammable gas dispersion from urban gas pipeline leakage using physics-informed neural networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sun, Qin & Li, Hongxu & Wang, Yuzhi & Zhang, Yingchao, 2022. "Multi-swarm-based cooperative reconfiguration model for resilient unmanned weapon system-of-systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    2. Du, Jianwei & Ren, Gang & Cui, Jialei & Cao, Qi & Wang, Jian & Wu, Chenyang & Zhang, Jiefei, 2025. "Monitoring of operational resilience on urban road network: A Shaoxing case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 257(PA).
    3. Caetano, Henrique O. & N., Luiz Desuó & Fogliatto, Matheus S.S. & Maciel, Carlos D., 2024. "Resilience assessment of critical infrastructures using dynamic Bayesian networks and evidence propagation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    4. Bakhtiari, Soheil & Najafi, Mohammad Reza & Goda, Katsuichiro & Peerhossaini, Hassan, 2025. "A dynamic Bayesian network approach to characterize multi-hazard risks and resilience in interconnected critical infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 257(PA).
    5. Li, Fan & Zhai, Changhai & Qin, Hao, 2024. "Post-earthquake functional state assessment of communication base station using Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    6. Yu, Yaocheng & Shuai, Bin & Huang, Wencheng, 2024. "Resilience evaluation of train control on-board system based on multi-dimensional continuous-time Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    7. Zhang, Hengqi & Geng, Hua & Zeng, Huarong & Jiang, Li, 2023. "Dynamic risk evaluation and control of electrical personal accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    8. Wang, Nanxi & Wu, Min & Yuen, Kum Fai, 2025. "Dynamic enterprise resilience assessment for port systems: A framework integrating Bayesian networks and Dempster-Shafer evidence theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    9. Wang, Heran & Zhai, Changhai & Ma, Liyang & Song, Dongdong & Xie, Lili, 2025. "Functionality assessment of natural gas distribution networks in post-earthquake scenarios with widespread component failures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    10. Fischer, Stefan G. & Stolz, Alexander, 2026. "Quantitative assessment of crises via central moments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 265(PA).
    11. Woldesellasse, Haile & Tesfamariam, Solomon, 2023. "Consequence assessment of gas pipeline failure caused by external pitting corrosion using an integrated Bayesian belief network and GIS model: Application with Alberta pipeline," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    12. Ibrahim Mutambik, 2024. "Assessing Urban Vulnerability to Emergencies: A Spatiotemporal Approach Using K-Means Clustering," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, October.
    13. Yijie Song & Beibei Wang & Xiaolu Wang & Yichen Zhang & Jiquan Zhang & Yilin Wang, 2025. "Hazardous Chemical Accident Evacuation Simulation and Analysis of Results," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-24, July.
    14. Zhang, Lu & Cui, Li & Chen, Lujie & Dai, Jing & Jin, Ziyi & Wu, Hao, 2023. "A hybrid approach to explore the critical criteria of online supply chain finance to improve supply chain performance," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    15. Kishore, Katchalla Bala & Gangolu, Jaswanth & Ramancha, Mukesh K. & Bhuyan, Kasturi & Sharma, Hrishikesh, 2022. "Performance-based probabilistic deflection capacity models and fragility estimation for reinforced concrete column and beam subjected to blast loading," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    16. Liu, Yuan & Zhang, Xuan & Cao, Xibin & Guo, Jinsheng & Shao, Zhongxi & Deng, Qingyang & Fu, Pengbo & Hou, Yaodong, 2025. "A new random vibration response analysis method for laminates: Geometric nonlinearity and uncertainty are both involved for higher consistency with reality," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 264(PA).
    17. Hao, Yucheng & Jia, Limin & Zio, Enrico & Wang, Yanhui & Small, Michael & Li, Man, 2023. "Improving resilience of high-speed train by optimizing repair strategies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    18. Yang, Bofan & Zhang, Lin & Zhang, Bo & Xiang, Yang & An, Lei & Wang, Wenfeng, 2022. "Complex equipment system resilience: Composition, measurement and element analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    19. Kurmankhojayev, Daniyar & Li, Guoyuan & Chen, Anthony, 2024. "Link criticality index: Refinement, framework extension, and a case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    20. Liu, Juncai & Tian, Li & Yang, Meng & Meng, Xiangrui, 2024. "Probabilistic framework for seismic resilience assessment of transmission tower-line systems subjected to mainshock-aftershock sequences," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:248:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024002448. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.