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The Impact of Autonomous Ships on Safety at Sea – A Statistical Analysis

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  • de Vos, Jiri
  • Hekkenberg, Robert G.
  • Valdez Banda, Osiris A.

Abstract

The advent of autonomous ships that are unmanned or low-manned will reduce the number of people at risk at sea. Even when autonomous navigation does not reduce the number of accidents, this means that safety at sea will increase. In fact, increased safety is one of the primary perceived drivers for autonomous shipping, although this safety increase has not yet been quantified in academic literature. In this article a statistical analysis is performed to determine the distribution of human casualties and lost ships over accident types, ship types and ship sizes. Subsequently, based on several scenarios for the implementation of autonomous ships, a quantification of the estimated reduction in loss of life and loss of ships is provided. It is concluded that the implementation of autonomy on small cargo ships with a length below 120 m will have the largest safety benefit, since these ships account for the majority recorded ship losses and lives lost.

Suggested Citation

  • de Vos, Jiri & Hekkenberg, Robert G. & Valdez Banda, Osiris A., 2021. "The Impact of Autonomous Ships on Safety at Sea – A Statistical Analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:210:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021001113
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107558
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Li, Xue & Oh, Poong & Zhou, Yusheng & Yuen, Kum Fai, 2023. "Operational risk identification of maritime surface autonomous ship: A network analysis approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-14.
    4. Cheng, Tingting & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Wu, Bing & Wu, Qing, 2023. "A novel system-theoretic approach for human-system collaboration safety: Case studies on two degrees of autonomy for autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    5. Antão, P. & Sun, S. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2023. "Quantitative assessment of ship collision risk influencing factors from worldwide accident and fleet data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    6. Abaei, Mohammad Mahdi & Hekkenberg, Robert & BahooToroody, Ahmad & Banda, Osiris Valdez & van Gelder, Pieter, 2022. "A probabilistic model to evaluate the resilience of unattended machinery plants in autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    7. Fan, Cunlong & Montewka, Jakub & Zhang, Di, 2022. "A risk comparison framework for autonomous ships navigation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    8. Liu, Zhichen & Li, Ying & Zhang, Zhaoyi & Yu, Wenbo, 2022. "A new evacuation accessibility analysis approach based on spatial information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    9. Kurt, Ismail & Aymelek, Murat, 2024. "Operational adaptation of ports with maritime autonomous surface ships," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 1-10.
    10. Johansen, Thomas & Blindheim, Simon & Torben, Tobias Rye & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Johansen, Tor Arne & Sørensen, Asgeir J., 2023. "Development and testing of a risk-based control system for autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    11. Wang, Yang & Chen, Peng & Wu, Bing & Wan, Chengpeng & Yang, Zaili, 2022. "A trustable architecture over blockchain to facilitate maritime administration for MASS systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    12. Tsoumpris, Charalampos & Theotokatos, Gerasimos, 2023. "A decision-making approach for the health-aware energy management of ship hybrid power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    13. Fan, Cunlong & Montewka, Jakub & Bolbot, Victor & Zhang, Yang & Qiu, Yuhui & Hu, Shenping, 2024. "Towards an analysis framework for operational risk coupling mode: A case from MASS navigating in restricted waters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    14. Adhita, I Gde Manik Sukanegara & Fuchi, Masaki & Konishi, Tsukasa & Fujimoto, Shoji, 2023. "Ship navigation from a Safety-II perspective: A case study of training-ship operation in coastal area," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    15. Wang, Yang & Ye, Ting & Zio, Enrico & Wang, Tengfei & Wu, Bing, 2024. "A blockchain-based credibility evaluation scheme for navigational event dissemination in the internet of ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).

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