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Modeling cyber-physical attacks based on stochastic game and Markov processes

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  • Lalropuia, K.C.
  • Gupta, Vandana

Abstract

Security of cyber-physical systems (CPS) has been a prime concern due to the ever-increasing integration of communication networks with physical devices. In this paper, we propose a zero − sum stochastic game model to capture the system dynamics resulting from the attacker − defender interactions in an attacked CPS. In addition to predicting the attacker behavior in terms of optimal strategies, the best strategies for counteracting the malicious activities are also determined. The lifetime of the attacked CPS is characterized based on a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) and consequently, mean time to failure of the system is derived. Further, we address dependability issues of the system by formulating a semi-Markov model and obtaining different dependability measures such as reliability, availability and confidentiality. The studies identify critical states of the system with respect to its dependability. Theoretical results are also validated via simulation. The results of the studies are expected to be helpful in developing efficient and robust defense mechanisms.

Suggested Citation

  • Lalropuia, K.C. & Gupta, Vandana, 2019. "Modeling cyber-physical attacks based on stochastic game and Markov processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 28-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:181:y:2019:i:c:p:28-37
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.08.014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gupta, Vandana & Dharmaraja, S., 2011. "Semi-Markov modeling of dependability of VoIP network in the presence of resource degradation and security attacks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(12), pages 1627-1636.
    2. Hausken, Kjell, 2010. "Defense and attack of complex and dependent systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 29-42.
    3. Liu, Xiaoxue & Zhang, Jiexin & Zhu, Peidong, 2017. "Modeling cyber-physical attacks based on probabilistic colored Petri nets and mixed-strategy game theory," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 13-25.
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    2. Wu, Shimeng & Jiang, Yuchen & Luo, Hao & Zhang, Jiusi & Yin, Shen & Kaynak, Okyay, 2022. "An integrated data-driven scheme for the defense of typical cyber–physical attacks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    3. Baogui Xin & Wei Peng & Yekyung Kwon, 2019. "A fractional-order difference Cournot duopoly game with long memory," Papers 1903.04305, arXiv.org.
    4. Zhao, Yunfei & Huang, Linan & Smidts, Carol & Zhu, Quanyan, 2020. "Finite-horizon semi-Markov game for time-sensitive attack response and probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
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