IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v478y2017icp188-204.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The mutual causality analysis between the stock and futures markets

Author

Listed:
  • Yao, Can-Zhong
  • Lin, Qing-Wen

Abstract

In this paper we employ the conditional Granger causality model to estimate the information flow, and find that the improved model outperforms the Granger causality model in revealing the asymmetric correlation between stocks and futures in the Chinese market.

Suggested Citation

  • Yao, Can-Zhong & Lin, Qing-Wen, 2017. "The mutual causality analysis between the stock and futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 478(C), pages 188-204.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:478:y:2017:i:c:p:188-204
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2017.02.071
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437117301747
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2017.02.071?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    2. Abhay H. Abhyankar, 1995. "Return and volatility dynamics in the FT‐SE 100 stock index and stock index futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 457-488, June.
    3. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-297, May.
    4. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    5. Yiu‐Kuen Tse & Wai‐Sum Chan, 2010. "The Lead–Lag Relation Between The S&P500 Spot And Futures Markets: An Intraday‐Data Analysis Using A Threshold Regression Model," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 133-144, March.
    6. Jeff Fleming & Barbara Ostdiek & Robert E. Whaley, 1996. "Trading costs and the relative rates of price discovery in stock, futures, and option markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 353-387, June.
    7. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    8. Jiang, Li & Fung, Joseph K W & Cheng, Louis T W, 2001. "The Lead-Lag Relation between Spot and Futures Markets under Different Short-Selling Regimes," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 63-88, August.
    9. Kim, Ho-Yong & Kwon, Okyu & Oh, Gabjin, 2016. "A causality between fund performance and stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 443(C), pages 439-450.
    10. Owain Ap Gwilym & Mike Buckle, 2001. "The lead-lag relationship between the FTSE100 stock index and its derivative contracts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 385-393.
    11. Yao, Can-Zhong & Lin, Ji-Nan & Liu, Xiao-Feng, 2016. "A study of hierarchical structure on South China industrial electricity-consumption correlation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 129-145.
    12. Chan, Kalok, 1992. "A Further Analysis of the Lead-Lag Relationship between the Cash Market and Stock Index Futures Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 123-152.
    13. Gong, Chen-Chen & Ji, Shen-Dan & Su, Li-Ling & Li, Sai-Ping & Ren, Fei, 2016. "The lead–lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures: A thermal optimal path method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 63-72.
    14. Yin-Wong Cheung & Hung-Gay Fung, 1997. "Information Flows Between Eurodollar Spot and Futures Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 1(4), pages 255-271, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Xiang-dong & Pan, Fei & Cai, Wen-li & Peng, Rui, 2020. "Correlation and risk measurement modeling: A Markov-switching mixed Clayton copula approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    2. Letife Özdemir & Ercan Özen & Simon Grima & Yannis Thalassinos, 2019. "Causality between Spot and Future Markets of the Borsa Istanbul Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 9(3-4), pages 115-131.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liwei Jin & Xianghui Yuan & Jun Long & Xiang Li & Feng Lian, 2022. "Price discovery in the CSI 300 Index derivatives markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1352-1368, July.
    2. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Hall, John H. & du Toit, Elda, 2021. "The lead–lag relationship between spot and futures prices: Empirical evidence from the Indian commodity market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    3. Jiang, Tao & Bao, Si & Li, Long, 2019. "The linear and nonlinear lead–lag relationship among three SSE 50 Index markets: The index futures, 50ETF spot and options markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 878-893.
    4. Ren, Fei & Ji, Shen-Dan & Cai, Mei-Ling & Li, Sai-Ping & Jiang, Xiong-Fei, 2019. "Dynamic lead–lag relationship between stock indices and their derivatives: A comparative study between Chinese mainland, Hong Kong and US stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 513(C), pages 709-723.
    5. Lepone, Andrew & Yang, Jin Young, 2013. "Informational role of market makers: The case of exchange traded CFDs," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 84-92.
    6. Hyun-Jung Ryoo & Graham Smith, 2004. "The impact of stock index futures on the Korean stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 243-251.
    7. Fei Ren & Mei-Ling Cai & Sai-Ping Li & Xiong Xiong & Zhang-HangJian Chen, 2023. "A Multi-market Comparison of the Intraday Lead–Lag Relations Among Stock Index-Based Spot, Futures and Options," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(1), pages 1-28, June.
    8. Ming-Yuan Leon Li & Chun-Nan Chen, 2010. "Examining the interrelation dynamics between option and stock markets using the Markov-switching vector error correction model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 1173-1191.
    9. Kumar, Satish, 2018. "Price discovery in emerging currency markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 528-536.
    10. Nidhi Choudhary & Girish K. Nair & Harsh Purohit, 2015. "Volatility In Copper Prices In India," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-26, December.
    11. Lahmiri, Salim, 2017. "Cointegration and causal linkages in fertilizer markets across different regimes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 181-189.
    12. Hu, Yang & Hou, Yang Greg & Oxley, Les, 2020. "What role do futures markets play in Bitcoin pricing? Causality, cointegration and price discovery from a time-varying perspective?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    13. Chaiyuth Padungsaksawasdi & Ali Parhizgari, 2017. "Major Currency ETFs and Their Associated Spot and Futures Rates," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(04), pages 1-32, December.
    14. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2016. "Intraday return predictability, portfolio maximisation, and hedging," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 105-116.
    15. Hou, Yang & Nartea, Gilbert, 2017. "Price Discovery in the Stock Index Futures Market: Evidence from the Chinese stock market crash," MPRA Paper 81995, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Yin-Wong Cheung & Hung-Gay Fung, 1997. "Information Flows Between Eurodollar Spot and Futures Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 1(4), pages 255-271, December.
    17. S. Wong & K. Chau & C. Yiu, 2007. "Volatility Transmission in the Real Estate Spot and Forward Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 281-293, October.
    18. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2015. "Is carbon emissions trading profitable?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 84-92.
    19. Minho Kim & Andrew C. Szakmary & Thomas V. Schwarz, 1999. "Trading costs and price discovery across stock index futures and cash markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 475-498, June.
    20. Shuxin Guo, 2021. "Do futures lead the index under stress? Evidence from the 2015 Chinese market turmoil and its aftermath," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 91-110, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:478:y:2017:i:c:p:188-204. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.