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An opinion dynamics model for the diffusion of innovations

Author

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  • Martins, André C.R.
  • Pereira, Carlos de B.
  • Vicente, Renato

Abstract

We study the dynamics of the adoption of new products by agents with continuous opinions and discrete actions (CODA). The model is such that the refusal in adopting a new idea or product is increasingly weighted by neighbor agents as evidence against the product. Under these rules, we study the distribution of adoption times and the final proportion of adopters in the population. We compare the cases where initial adopters are clustered to the case where they are randomly scattered around the social network and investigate small world effects on the final proportion of adopters. The model predicts a fat tailed distribution for late adopters which is verified by empirical data.

Suggested Citation

  • Martins, André C.R. & Pereira, Carlos de B. & Vicente, Renato, 2009. "An opinion dynamics model for the diffusion of innovations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(15), pages 3225-3232.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:388:y:2009:i:15:p:3225-3232
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2009.04.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rainer Hegselmann & Ulrich Krause, 2002. "Opinion Dynamics and Bounded Confidence Models, Analysis and Simulation," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 5(3), pages 1-2.
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    4. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    5. Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron & Józef Sznajd, 2000. "Opinion Evolution In Closed Community," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(06), pages 1157-1165.
    6. Quentin Michard & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2005. "Theory of collective opinion shifts: from smooth trends to abrupt swings," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500060, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    7. Q. Michard & J.-P. Bouchaud, 2005. "Theory of collective opinion shifts: from smooth trends to abrupt swings," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 47(1), pages 151-159, September.
    8. Galam, Serge & Vignes, Annick, 2005. "Fashion, novelty and optimality: an application from Physics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 351(2), pages 605-619.
    9. Poulsen, Peter Bo & Adamsen, Sven & Vondeling, Hindrik & Jorgensen, Torben, 1998. "Diffusion of laparoscopic technologies in Denmark," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 149-167, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Galam, Serge, 2010. "Public debates driven by incomplete scientific data: The cases of evolution theory, global warming and H1N1 pandemic influenza," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(17), pages 3619-3631.
    2. Diao, Su-Meng & Liu, Yun & Zeng, Qing-An & Luo, Gui-Xun & Xiong, Fei, 2014. "A novel opinion dynamics model based on expanded observation ranges and individuals’ social influences in social networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 415(C), pages 220-228.
    3. Galam, Serge, 2011. "Collective beliefs versus individual inflexibility: The unavoidable biases of a public debate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(17), pages 3036-3054.
    4. C.R. Martins, André, 2014. "Discrete opinion models as a limit case of the CODA model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 395(C), pages 352-357.
    5. Si, Xia-Meng & Liu, Yun & Xiong, Fei & Zhang, Yan-Chao & Ding, Fei & Cheng, Hui, 2010. "Effects of selective attention on continuous opinions and discrete decisions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(18), pages 3711-3719.
    6. Tomasz Weron & Anna Kowalska-Pyzalska & Rafal Weron, 2017. "The role of educational trainings in the diffusion of smart metering platforms: An agent-based modeling approach," HSC Research Reports HSC/17/04, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    7. Elmar Kiesling & Markus Günther & Christian Stummer & Lea Wakolbinger, 2012. "Agent-based simulation of innovation diffusion: a review," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 20(2), pages 183-230, June.
    8. Qian, Shen & Liu, Yijun & Galam, Serge, 2015. "Activeness as a key to counter democratic balance," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 432(C), pages 187-196.
    9. Serge Galam, 2016. "Stubbornness as an unfortunate key to win a public debate: an illustration from sociophysics," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 15(1), pages 117-130, June.
    10. Biondi, Yuri & Giannoccolo, Pierpaolo & Galam, Serge, 2012. "Formation of share market prices under heterogeneous beliefs and common knowledge," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5532-5545.
    11. Huang, Chuanchao & Hu, Bin & Jiang, Guoyin & Yang, Ruixian, 2016. "Modeling of agent-based complex network under cyber-violence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 399-411.

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