IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v57y2010i8p1026-1037.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The paradox of interest rates of the Greenback Era: A reexamination

Author

Listed:
  • Zhylyevskyy, Oleksandr

Abstract

The two leading explanations for the counterintuitive behavior of interest rates during the Greenback Era (1862-1878) - the resumption expectations model of Calomiris (1988) and the capital flow argument of Friedman and Schwartz (1963) - are inconsistent with each other in terms of their treatment of financial arbitrage. A methodology to identify unexploited arbitrage opportunities in financial data is proposed. Observable returns strongly suggest that the money market of the Greenback Era did not systematically admit arbitrage, except possibly around the times of the Gold Corner of 1869 and the Panic of 1873, which implies that Calomiris provides a more plausible explanation.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhylyevskyy, Oleksandr, 2010. "The paradox of interest rates of the Greenback Era: A reexamination," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1026-1037, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:57:y:2010:i:8:p:1026-1037
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304-3932(10)00125-X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Field, Alexander James, 1983. "Land Abundance, Interest/Profit Rates, and Nineteenth-Century American and British Technology," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 405-431, June.
    2. Roll, Richard, 1972. "Interest Rates and Price Expectations During the Civil War," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 476-498, June.
    3. Harrison, J. Michael & Pliska, Stanley R., 1981. "Martingales and stochastic integrals in the theory of continuous trading," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 215-260, August.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-262, April.
    5. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
    6. Calomiris, Charles W, 1994. "Price and Exchange Rate Determination during the Greenback Suspension," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 344-344, April.
    7. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    8. Michie, Ranald C., 1986. "The London and New York Stock Exchanges, 1850–1914," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(1), pages 171-187, March.
    9. Davis, George K. & Pecquet, Gary M., 1990. "Interest Rates in the Civil War South," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 133-148, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742, Decembrie.
    2. Li, Minqiang, 2010. "Asset Pricing - A Brief Review," MPRA Paper 22379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. A Craig Burnside & Jeremy J Graveline, 2020. "On the Asset Market View of Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 239-260.
    4. Munk, Claus, 2015. "Financial Asset Pricing Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198716457, Decembrie.
    5. Anlong Li, 1992. "Binomial approximation in financial models: computational simplicity and convergence," Working Papers (Old Series) 9201, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    6. Björn Lutz, 2010. "Pricing of Derivatives on Mean-Reverting Assets," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-02909-7, December.
    7. Keppo, Jussi & Moscarini, Giuseppe & Smith, Lones, 2008. "The demand for information: More heat than light," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 21-50, January.
    8. Robert Elliott & Tak Siu, 2015. "Asset Pricing Using Trading Volumes in a Hidden Regime-Switching Environment," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 22(2), pages 133-149, May.
    9. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    10. Sebastian Jaimungal, 2022. "Reinforcement learning and stochastic optimisation," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 103-129, January.
    11. repec:uts:finphd:40 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Zhu, Ke & Ling, Shiqing, 2015. "Model-based pricing for financial derivatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 447-457.
    13. Jin Zhang & Yi Xiang, 2008. "The implied volatility smirk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 263-284.
    14. Blanchet-Scalliet, Christophette & El Karoui, Nicole & Martellini, Lionel, 2005. "Dynamic asset pricing theory with uncertain time-horizon," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1737-1764, October.
    15. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 1998. "Contiuous Time Equilibrium Pricing of Nonredundant Assets," Working Papers 98-30, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    16. Michael C. Fu & Bingqing Li & Guozhen Li & Rongwen Wu, 2017. "Option Pricing for a Jump-Diffusion Model with General Discrete Jump-Size Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3961-3977, November.
    17. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    18. Boero, G. & Torricelli, C., 1996. "A comparative evaluation of alternative models of the term structure of interest rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 205-223, August.
    19. Tu, Teng-Tsai, 1998. "An entropic approach to equity market integration and consumption-based capital asset pricing models," ISU General Staff Papers 1998010108000012895, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    20. Melenberg, B. & Werker, B.J.M., 1996. "On the Pricing of Options in Incomplete Markets," Discussion Paper 1996-19, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    21. El-Khatib, Youssef & Goutte, Stephane & Makumbe, Zororo S. & Vives, Josep, 2023. "A hybrid stochastic volatility model in a Lévy market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 220-235.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N21 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:57:y:2010:i:8:p:1026-1037. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.