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Optimal investment decisions when time-horizon is uncertain

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  • Blanchet-Scalliet, Christophette
  • El Karoui, Nicole
  • Jeanblanc, Monique
  • Martellini, Lionel

Abstract

Many investors do not know with certainty when their portfolio will be liquidated. Should their portfolio selection be influenced by the uncertainty of exit time? In order to answer this question, we consider a suitable extension of the familiar optimal investment problem of Merton [Merton, R.C., 1971. Optimal consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model. Journal of Economic Theory 3, 373-413], where we allow the conditional distribution function of an agent's time-horizon to be stochastic and correlated to returns on risky securities. In contrast to existing literature, which has focused on an independent time-horizon, we show that the portfolio decision is affected.

Suggested Citation

  • Blanchet-Scalliet, Christophette & El Karoui, Nicole & Jeanblanc, Monique & Martellini, Lionel, 2008. "Optimal investment decisions when time-horizon is uncertain," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(11), pages 1100-1113, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:mateco:v:44:y:2008:i:11:p:1100-1113
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    2. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    3. Merton, Robert C., 1975. "Theory of Finance from the Perspective of Continuous Time," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(04), pages 659-674, November.
    4. Richard, Scott F., 1975. "Optimal consumption, portfolio and life insurance rules for an uncertain lived individual in a continuous time model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 187-203, June.
    5. Bruno Bouchard & Huyên Pham, 2004. "Wealth-path dependent utility maximization in incomplete markets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 579-603, November.
    6. Cox, John C. & Huang, Chi-fu, 1989. "Optimal consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices follow a diffusion process," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 33-83, October.
    7. Blanchet-Scalliet, Christophette & El Karoui, Nicole & Martellini, Lionel, 2005. "Dynamic asset pricing theory with uncertain time-horizon," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1737-1764, October.
    8. Nils H. Hakansson, 1971. "Optimal Entrepreneurial Decisions in a Completely Stochastic Environment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(7), pages 427-449, March.
    9. Hakansson, Nils H, 1969. "Optimal Investment and Consumption Strategies under Risk, an Uncertain Lifetime, and Insurance," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(3), pages 443-466, October.
    10. Huang, Ming, 2003. "Liquidity shocks and equilibrium liquidity premia," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 104-129, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tiziano De Angelis & Giorgio Ferrari & John Moriarty, 2014. "A Non Convex Singular Stochastic Control Problem and its Related Optimal Stopping Boundaries," Papers 1405.2442, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2014.
    2. Monique Jeanblanc & Thibaut Mastrolia & Dylan Possamaï & Anthony Réveillac, 2015. "Utility Maximization With Random Horizon: A Bsde Approach," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(07), pages 1-43, November.
    3. Oleksii Mostovyi, 2015. "Necessary and sufficient conditions in the problem of optimal investment with intermediate consumption," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 135-159, January.
    4. Kardaras, Constantinos, 2010. "Numéraire-invariant preferences in financial modeling," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 44993, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2016. "How does the market variance risk premium vary over time? Evidence from S&P 500 variance swap investment returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-75.
    6. Mousa, A.S. & Pinheiro, D. & Pinto, A.A., 2016. "Optimal life-insurance selection and purchase within a market of several life-insurance providers," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 133-141.
    7. Constantinos Kardaras, 2009. "Num\'{e}raire-invariant preferences in financial modeling," Papers 0903.3736, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2010.
    8. repec:bla:mathfi:v:27:y:2017:i:1:p:68-95 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Schendel, Lorenz S., 2014. "Consumption-investment problems with stochastic mortality risk," SAFE Working Paper Series 43, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    10. Constantinos Kardaras & Jan Obłój & Eckhard Platen, 2017. "The Numéraire Property And Long-Term Growth Optimality For Drawdown-Constrained Investments," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 68-95, January.
    11. I. Duarte & D. Pinheiro & A. A. Pinto & S. R. Pliska, 2011. "Optimal Life Insurance Purchase, Consumption and Investment on a financial market with multi-dimensional diffusive terms," Papers 1102.2263, arXiv.org.
    12. Tahir Choulli & Sina Yansori, 2018. "Deflators and log-optimal portfolios under random horizon: Explicit description and optimization," Papers 1803.10128, arXiv.org.
    13. Marina Di Giacinto & Salvatore Federico & Fausto Gozzi, 2011. "Pension funds with a minimum guarantee: a stochastic control approach," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 297-342, June.
    14. Ali Al-Aradi & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2018. "Outperformance and Tracking: Dynamic Asset Allocation for Active and Passive Portfolio Management," Papers 1803.05819, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
    15. Ying Jiao & Huyên Pham, 2011. "Optimal investment with counterparty risk: a default-density model approach," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 725-753, December.
    16. Giulia Di Nunno & Steffen Sjursen, 2013. "Information and optimal investment in defaultable assets," Papers 1312.6032, arXiv.org.
    17. de Kort, J. & Vellekoop, M.H., 2017. "Existence of optimal consumption strategies in markets with longevity risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 107-121.
    18. Ying Jiao & Idris Kharroubi, 2016. "Information uncertainty related to marked random times and optimal investment," Papers 1607.02743, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.
    19. Wu, Huiling & Zeng, Yan & Yao, Haixiang, 2014. "Multi-period Markowitz's mean–variance portfolio selection with state-dependent exit probability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 69-78.

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