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Beware of the reversal of land degradation neutrality in China's drylands

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  • Feng, Siyuan
  • Zhao, Wenwu
  • Yan, Jinming
  • Xia, Fangzhou
  • Pereira, Paulo

Abstract

China's drylands have long faced severe land degradation, particularly in soil wind and water erosion. Global greening resulting from climate change and human-led ecological restoration efforts, such as tree planting and afforestation, have enabled China's drylands to achieve land degradation neutrality (LDN) in 2020, marking a significant milestone in environmental management. However, sustaining this status faces uncertainties due to severe climate change and escalating human activities. To address this uncertainty, we evaluated LDN in China's drylands for 2050 under various emission scenarios based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project platform. LDN was assessed using critical indicators tailored to China's drylands, including land productivity, soil organic carbon, land cover, wind, and water erosion. These indicators assessed LDN based on the "one out, all out" principle. Our findings indicate a potential reversal of LDN in China's drylands by 2050 under various emission scenarios. Recognising the uncertainty is essential for crafting region-specific land management strategies to prevent this reversal and promote sustainable development. This is an opinion paper that evaluates LDN in China's drylands for 2050 under various emission scenarios through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project platform, which emphasises the imperative for adaptive, precise land management policies tailored to the unique challenges faced by China's drylands to ensure long-term resilience and sustainability against adverse climatic and anthropogenic pressures.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng, Siyuan & Zhao, Wenwu & Yan, Jinming & Xia, Fangzhou & Pereira, Paulo, 2025. "Beware of the reversal of land degradation neutrality in China's drylands," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:151:y:2025:i:c:s0264837725000262
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107493
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jianping Huang & Haipeng Yu & Xiaodan Guan & Guoyin Wang & Ruixia Guo, 2016. "Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(2), pages 166-171, February.
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    3. Chi Chen & Taejin Park & Xuhui Wang & Shilong Piao & Baodong Xu & Rajiv K. Chaturvedi & Richard Fuchs & Victor Brovkin & Philippe Ciais & Rasmus Fensholt & Hans Tømmervik & Govindasamy Bala & Zaichun , 2019. "China and India lead in greening of the world through land-use management," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(2), pages 122-129, February.
    4. Sun, Qiangqiang & Zhang, Ping & Jiang, Wanbei & Qu, Wei & Sun, Yanan & Sun, Danfeng, 2022. "Navigating local environment and scientific knowledge in dryland social-ecological systems through linking ecological policy-household interactions with land surface dynamics," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
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    1. He, Ji & Tang, Yefeng & Guo, Xiaoqi & Chen, Haitao & Guo, Wen & Sun, Yuchen, 2025. "Assessment of coupling coordination and spatial distribution characteristics between urbanization and ecosystem health in the Yellow River Basin," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).

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