IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v69y2020ics0301420720308667.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

World peak potash: An analytical study

Author

Listed:
  • Al Rawashdeh, Rami

Abstract

Global economic development could be constrained by the availability of potash. While food demand is expected to double by 2050, many of the essential resources that support food production are becoming increasingly scarce, including potash. Since potash availability is a critical element in food security and large reserves are concentrated in only a few countries, a shortage of potash could result in a low agricultural productivity that, in many cases, may cause undernourishment and in extreme cases, famine. Based on a conceptual analysis that uses the logistic Hubbert models, the purpose of this paper is to asses the perspective of sustainability of world potash reserves and to determine the exact timing of the potash peak which is used as an early warning for policy makers to prepare society for declining future supplies. The results of the paper showed that peak potash could be imminent in 2057. The peak years and the forecasted peak productions for Canada, Belarus, Russia, Jordan and Israel were estimated at (2042, 16.0Mt), (2040, 13.5Mt), (2073, 21Mt), (2056, 3.1Mt) and (2045, 3.5Mt) respectively. Countries like Germany and USA have already passed their peak production in 1980 and 1968 respectively. Using different reserves assumptions, the maximum peak years varied from 2029 to 2095. In order to achieve potash security in the long term, it will require an integrated approach that might range from shifting diets, to developing markets for renewable potash fertilisers sourced from excreta, manure and food waste.

Suggested Citation

  • Al Rawashdeh, Rami, 2020. "World peak potash: An analytical study," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:69:y:2020:i:c:s0301420720308667
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101834
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420720308667
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101834?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rawashdeh, Rami Al & Xavier-Oliveira, Emanuel & Maxwell, Philip, 2016. "The potash market and its future prospects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 154-163.
    2. Lomborg,Bjørn, 2001. "The Skeptical Environmentalist," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521010689, December.
    3. Vining, Aidan R. & Moore, Mark A., 2017. "Potash ownership and extraction: Between a rock and a hard place in Saskatchewan," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 71-80.
    4. David L. Anderson, 1985. "Market Power and the Saskatchewan Potash Industry," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 11(s1), pages 321-328, July.
    5. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Zhao, Lin & Snowden, Simon & Wang, Xu, 2011. "A comparison of two typical multicyclic models used to forecast the world's conventional oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7616-7621.
    6. Fang, Jianchun & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Lu, Zhou & Wu, Wanshan, 2018. "Estimating Peak uranium production in China – Based on a Stella model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 250-258.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James A. Brander, 2007. "Viewpoint: Sustainability: Malthus revisited?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 1-38, February.
    2. Jennifer Marohasy, 2005. "Australia's Environment Undergoing Renewal, Not Collapse," Energy & Environment, , vol. 16(3-4), pages 457-480, July.
    3. Mohajan, Haradhan, 2011. "Green marketing is a sustainable marketing system in the twenty first century," MPRA Paper 50857, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Feb 2012.
    4. Rami Rawashdeh, 2023. "Estimating short-run (SR) and long-run (LR) demand elasticities of phosphate," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(2), pages 239-253, June.
    5. Vining, Aidan R. & Moore, Mark A., 2017. "Potash ownership and extraction: Between a rock and a hard place in Saskatchewan," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 71-80.
    6. Kopnina Helen, 2010. "Global Environmental Politics and the Grand Old Theory of ‘Human Nature’," Jadavpur Journal of International Relations, , vol. 14(1), pages 83-105, June.
    7. Peter Jacques, 2006. "How should corporations deal with environmental scepticism?," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(1), pages 25-36, February.
    8. Wang, Ke & Feng, Lianyong & Wang, Jianliang & Xiong, Yi & Tverberg, Gail E., 2016. "An oil production forecast for China considering economic limits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 586-596.
    9. Dmitrieva, D. & Ilinova, A. & Kraslawski, A., 2017. "Strategic management of the potash industry in Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 81-89.
    10. Van Passel, Steven, 2008. "Assessing farm sustainability with value oriented methods," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44141, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Bruce R. Conard, 2013. "Some Challenges to Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(8), pages 1-14, August.
    12. Zhang, Yujiang & Feng, Guorui & Zhang, Min & Ren, Hongrui & Bai, Jinwen & Guo, Yuxia & Jiang, Haina & Kang, Lixun, 2016. "Residual coal exploitation and its impact on sustainable development of the coal industry in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 534-541.
    13. Nicolas Charles & Gaétan Lefebvre & Rémy Tuloup & Audrey Carreaud & Antoine Boubault & Anne-Sophie Serrand & Maxime Picault & Virginie Piguet & Valeria Manzin & Fabien Deswarte & Julien Aupoil, 2023. "Mineral Resource Abundance: An Assessment Methodology for a Responsible Use of Mineral Raw Materials in Downstream Industries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-39, December.
    14. Wagner, Rodrigo, 2018. "Can the market value state-owned enterprises without privatizing them? An application to natural resources companies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 282-290.
    15. Søren H. Wenstøp & Fred Wenstøp, 2016. "Operational research virtues in the face of climate change," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 4(1), pages 53-72, June.
    16. Shunsuke Mori, 2006. "Role of integrated assessment and scenario development issues beyond SRES," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 7(3), pages 315-330, September.
    17. Andrea Bigano & Aleksander Śniegocki & Jacopo Zotti, 2016. "Policies for a More Dematerialized EU Economy. Theoretical Underpinnings, Political Context and Expected Feasibility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-22, July.
    18. Wang, Jianliang & Mohr, Steve & Feng, Lianyong & Liu, Huihui & Tverberg, Gail E., 2016. "Analysis of resource potential for China’s unconventional gas and forecast for its long-term production growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 389-401.
    19. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Zhao, Lin & Snowden, Simon, 2013. "China's natural gas: Resources, production and its impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 690-698.
    20. Raymond Murphy & Riley Dunlap, 2012. "Beyond the society/nature divide: building on the sociology of William Freudenburg," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 2(1), pages 7-17, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:69:y:2020:i:c:s0301420720308667. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.