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Short-term forecasts on individual accessibility in bus system based on neural network model

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  • Zuo, Yufan
  • Fu, Xiao
  • Liu, Zhiyuan
  • Huang, Di

Abstract

Precise forecasts on individual accessibility in bus system can help make policies to accommodate fluctuating bus travel demand and promoting social equity. In this study, we propose a three-stage method for short-term forecasts on individual accessibility in bus system based on neural network (NN) model. In the first stage, a NN model is designed to tackle the nonlinear mapping between passengers' bus trip appearances in historical periods and those in the predicted period. A rate function, which considers bus trip generation rates of passengers, is then applied using outputs of the designed NN model. In the second stage, probabilities of origin-destinations (ODs) chosen by passengers in the predicted period are calculated. In the third stage, land use information combined with results of previous two stages are used to obtain the individual accessibility in bus system in the predicted period. Compared to individual accessibility calculated by real data, it is found that the average errors of predicted results by the proposed method in weekdays and at weekends are only 8.37% and 10.13%, respectively. The results also demonstrate the capability of combining a NN model, traffic data and land use information to forecast the future spatial distribution of individual accessibility in transport system.

Suggested Citation

  • Zuo, Yufan & Fu, Xiao & Liu, Zhiyuan & Huang, Di, 2021. "Short-term forecasts on individual accessibility in bus system based on neural network model," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:93:y:2021:i:c:s0966692321001289
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2021.103075
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Truong Ngoc Cuong & Le Ngoc Bao Long & Hwan-Seong Kim & Sam-Sang You, 2023. "Data analytics and throughput forecasting in port management systems against disruptions: a case study of Busan Port," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 25(1), pages 61-89, March.
    3. Muhammad Ashraf Javid & Nazam Ali & Tiziana Campisi & Giovanni Tesoriere & Krisada Chaiyasarn, 2022. "Influence of Social Constraints, Mobility Incentives, and Restrictions on Commuters’ Behavioral Intentions and Moral Obligation towards the Metro-Bus Service in Lahore," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19, February.
    4. Fu, Xiao & Zuo, Yufan & Zhang, Shanqi & Liu, Zhiyuan, 2022. "Measuring joint space-time accessibility in transit network under travel time uncertainty," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 355-368.

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