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Who is returning to public transport for non-work trips after COVID-19? Evidence from older citizens' smart cards in the UK's second largest city region

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  • Long, Alfie
  • Carney, Ffion
  • Kandt, Jens

Abstract

Harnessing a unique data source – longitudinal travel smartcard data linked to passenger demographics from 2019 to 2022 – we use methods of survival analysis to model the recovery of public transport patronage among 183,891 senior citizens resident in the West Midlands metropolitan region in the United Kingdom. Comparing pre and peri-pandemic patronage, we identify pronounced social and spatial inequalities in the speed of return to public transport. We find that male, younger and non-White passengers are more likely to return to public transport as soon as movement restrictions were lifted, whereas passengers from White ethnic background and affluent areas do not return to public transport within the first year after the outbreak. Pronounced social inequalities persist into the middle of 2021, and only thence they began to attenuate as part of a wider return to public transport among passengers post retirement age. In 2022, 80% of these passengers have returned to public transport but the frequency of use has remained lower than prior to the pandemic. We discuss implications for transport policy and planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Long, Alfie & Carney, Ffion & Kandt, Jens, 2023. "Who is returning to public transport for non-work trips after COVID-19? Evidence from older citizens' smart cards in the UK's second largest city region," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:107:y:2023:i:c:s0966692323000017
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2023.103529
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kandt, Jens & Leak, Alistair, 2019. "Examining inclusive mobility through smartcard data: What shall we make of senior citizens' declining bus patronage in the West Midlands?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-1.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Patrick Ballantyne & Cillian Berragan, 2024. "Overture Point of Interest data for the United Kingdom: A comprehensive, queryable open data product, validated against Geolytix supermarket data," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 51(8), pages 1974-1980, October.
    3. Li, Mengya & Kwan, Mei-Po & Hu, Wenyan & Li, Rui & Wang, Jun, 2023. "Examining the effects of station-level factors on metro ridership using multiscale geographically weighted regression," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Alousi-Jones, Meredith & Carvalho, Thiago & Zhang, Merrina & Jimenez, Isabella & El-Geneidy, Ahmed, 2025. "Who is willing to take transit in the future? Older adults’ perceived challenges and barriers to using public transit across Canada," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    5. Srinivasan, Sumeeta & Shamsuddin, Shomon & Cheng, Justina, 2025. "Bus ridership retention, place-based factors, and COVID-19 in the Boston area," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    6. Nolte, Kerstin & Schaefer, Kerstin J., 2024. "Widening the gap? Evidence from Germany for changes in the attitude behaviour gap for transportation during COVID-19," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).

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