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An improved model averaging scheme for logistic regression

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  • Ghosh, D.
  • Yuan, Z.

Abstract

Recently, penalized regression methods have attracted much attention in the statistical literature. In this article, we argue that such methods can be improved for the purposes of prediction by utilizing model averaging ideas. We propose a new algorithm that combines penalized regression with model averaging for improved prediction. We also discuss the issue of model selection versus model averaging and propose a diagnostic based on the notion of generalized degrees of freedom. The proposed methods are studied using both simulated and real data.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghosh, D. & Yuan, Z., 2009. "An improved model averaging scheme for logistic regression," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(8), pages 1670-1681, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:100:y:2009:i:8:p:1670-1681
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gerda Claeskens & Christophe Croux & Johan Van Kerckhoven, 2006. "Variable Selection for Logistic Regression Using a Prediction-Focused Information Criterion," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 972-979, December.
    2. Leeb, Hannes & Pötscher, Benedikt M., 2008. "Can One Estimate The Unconditional Distribution Of Post-Model-Selection Estimators?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 338-376, April.
    3. Yuan, Zheng & Yang, Yuhong, 2005. "Combining Linear Regression Models: When and How?," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1202-1214, December.
    4. Yang Y., 2001. "Adaptive Regression by Mixing," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 574-588, June.
    5. Claeskens,Gerda & Hjort,Nils Lid, 2008. "Model Selection and Model Averaging," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521852258.
    6. Fan J. & Li R., 2001. "Variable Selection via Nonconcave Penalized Likelihood and its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1348-1360, December.
    7. Danilov, Dmitry & Magnus, J.R.Jan R., 2004. "On the harm that ignoring pretesting can cause," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 27-46, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shangwei Zhao & Jun Liao & Dalei Yu, 2020. "Model averaging estimator in ridge regression and its large sample properties," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1719-1739, August.
    2. Jin‐Hua Chen & Chun‐Shu Chen & Meng‐Fan Huang & Hung‐Chih Lin, 2016. "Estimating the Probability of Rare Events Occurring Using a Local Model Averaging," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(10), pages 1855-1870, October.
    3. Zhang, Xinyu & Lu, Zudi & Zou, Guohua, 2013. "Adaptively combined forecasting for discrete response time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 80-91.

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