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Cross-sectional alpha dispersion and performance evaluation

Author

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  • Harvey, Campbell R.
  • Liu, Yan

Abstract

Our paper explores the link between cross-sectional fund return dispersion and performance evaluation. The foundation of our model is the simple intuition that in periods of high return dispersion, which is associated with high levels of idiosyncratic risk for zero-alpha funds, unskilled managers can more easily disguise themselves as skilled. Rational investors should be more skeptical and apply larger discounts to reported performance in high dispersion environments. Our empirical results are consistent with this prediction. Using fund flow data, we show that a one standard deviation increase in cross-sectional return dispersion is associated with an 11% to 17% decline in flow-performance sensitivity. The effect is stronger for recent data and among outperforming funds.

Suggested Citation

  • Harvey, Campbell R. & Liu, Yan, 2019. "Cross-sectional alpha dispersion and performance evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 273-296.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:134:y:2019:i:2:p:273-296
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.04.005
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Keith Cuthbertson & Dirk Nitzsche & Niall O’Sullivan, 2023. "UK mutual funds: performance persistence and portfolio size," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(4), pages 284-298, July.
    2. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk & O'Sullivan, Niall, 2022. "Mutual fund performance persistence: Factor models and portfolio size," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Kooli, Maher & Stetsyuk, Ivan, 2021. "Are hedge fund managers skilled?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    4. Svetlana Bryzgalova & Jiantao Huang & Christian Julliard, 2023. "Bayesian Solutions for the Factor Zoo: We Just Ran Two Quadrillion Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 487-557, February.
    5. Luo, Deming & Jiang, Sainan & Yao, Zhongwei, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and mutual fund risk shifting," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Moraes, Fernando & Cavalcante-Filho, Elias & De-Losso, Rodrigo, 2021. "Unskilled fund managers: Replicating active fund performance with few ETFs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2020. "Insolvency regimes and firms' default risk under economic uncertainty and shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 180-197.
    8. Luu, Ellie & Xu, Fangming & Zheng, Liyi, 2023. "Short-selling activities in the time of COVID-19," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(4).
    9. Grønborg, Niels S. & Lunde, Asger & Timmermann, Allan & Wermers, Russ, 2021. "Picking funds with confidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 1-28.
    10. Cheng, Tingting & Yan, Cheng & Yan, Yayi, 2021. "Improved inference for fund alphas using high-dimensional cross-sectional tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 57-81.
    11. Klinkowska, Olga & Zhao, Yuan, 2023. "Fund flows and performance: New evidence from retail and institutional SRI mutual funds," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Alpha; Hedge funds; Mutual funds; Performance evaluation; Bayesian; Appraisal ratio; Flow-performance sensitivity; Flow-performance convexity; Idiosyncratic risk; Performance ranks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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