IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jaecon/v78y2024i2s0165410124000417.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does accounting information identify bubbles for Fama? Evidence from accruals

Author

Listed:
  • Arif, Salman
  • Sul, Edward

Abstract

Economists have long observed that stock price bubbles are associated with corporate overinvestment. We study the ex-ante identification of bubbles (i.e. stock price booms followed by busts) by examining industry-level investments in net operating asset (NOA) accruals and stock returns for 49 countries around the world. Consistent with overinvestment in operating assets being key to bubble formation, we document five findings: (1) NOA accruals positively forecast the eventual crash of an industry price run-up; (2) NOA accruals negatively forecast stock returns following a run-up; (3) NOA accruals are positively associated with investor sentiment; (4) higher NOA accruals forecast more disappointing earnings relative to analysts’ expectations for run-up industries; and (5) NOA accruals are sharply stronger predictors of crashes, returns and analyst forecast errors following run-ups compared to other periods. Our results provide the first evidence that accounting information identifies stock price bubbles and suggest that financial statements are important for detecting and anticipating industry- and market-level inefficiencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Arif, Salman & Sul, Edward, 2024. "Does accounting information identify bubbles for Fama? Evidence from accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:78:y:2024:i:2:s0165410124000417
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101711
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165410124000417
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101711?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richardson, Scott A. & Sloan, Richard G. & Soliman, Mark T. & Tuna, Irem, 2005. "Accrual reliability, earnings persistence and stock prices," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 437-485, September.
    2. Allen, Eric J. & Larson, Chad R. & Sloan, Richard G., 2013. "Accrual reversals, earnings and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 113-129.
    3. Khan, Mozaffar, 2008. "Are accruals mispriced Evidence from tests of an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 55-77, March.
    4. Hirshleifer, David & Kewei Hou & Teoh, Siew Hong & Yinglei Zhang, 2004. "Do investors overvalue firms with bloated balance sheets?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 297-331, December.
    5. Luca J. Liebi, 2020. "The effect of ETFs on financial markets: a literature review," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 34(2), pages 165-178, June.
    6. Matthew Baron & Wei Xiong, 2017. "Credit Expansion and Neglected Crash Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 713-764.
    7. R. David Mclean & Jeffrey Pontiff, 2016. "Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 5-32, February.
    8. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1991. "A Theory of Trading in Stock Index Futures," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(1), pages 17-51.
    9. White, Eugene N, 1990. "The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1929 Revisited," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 67-83, Spring.
    10. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    11. Arif, Salman & Marshall, Nathan & Yohn, Teri Lombardi, 2016. "Understanding the relation between accruals and volatility: A real options-based investment approach," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 65-86.
    12. Salman Arif & Charles M. C. Lee, 2014. "Aggregate Investment and Investor Sentiment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(11), pages 3241-3279.
    13. Paul Hribar & John McInnis, 2012. "Investor Sentiment and Analysts' Earnings Forecast Errors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 293-307, February.
    14. Ilia D. Dichev, 2007. "What Are Stock Investors’ Actual Historical Returns? Evidence from Dollar-Weighted Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 386-401, March.
    15. Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 157-216.
    16. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    17. Patricia M. Dechow & Scott A. Richardson & Richard G. Sloan, 2008. "The Persistence and Pricing of the Cash Component of Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 537-566, June.
    18. Hirshleifer, David & Hou, Kewei & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2009. "Accruals, cash flows, and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 389-406, March.
    19. Chad R. Larson & Richard Sloan & Jenny Zha Giedt, 2018. "Defining, measuring, and modeling accruals: a guide for researchers," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 827-871, September.
    20. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    21. Heater, John C. & Nallareddy, Suresh & Venkatachalam, Mohan, 2021. "Aggregate accruals and market returns: The role of aggregate M&A activity," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2).
    22. Pontiff, Jeffrey, 2006. "Costly arbitrage and the myth of idiosyncratic risk," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 35-52, October.
    23. Richardson, Scott & Tuna, Irem & Wysocki, Peter, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: A review of recent research advances," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 410-454, December.
    24. Mashruwala, Christina & Rajgopal, Shivaram & Shevlin, Terry, 2006. "Why is the accrual anomaly not arbitraged away? The role of idiosyncratic risk and transaction costs," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 3-33, October.
    25. Core, John E. & Guay, Wayne R. & Verdi, Rodrigo, 2008. "Is accruals quality a priced risk factor?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 2-22, September.
    26. Eugene F. Fama, 2014. "Two Pillars of Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1467-1485, June.
    27. George A. Akerlof & Robert J. Shiller, 2010. "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9163.
    28. Morck, Randall & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1990. "The Stock Market Investments: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Scholarly Articles 30747157, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    29. Jeremiah Green & John R. M. Hand & Mark T. Soliman, 2011. "Going, Going, Gone? The Apparent Demise of the Accruals Anomaly," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 797-816, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ellahie, Atif, 2024. "Accounting for bubbles: A discussion of Arif and Sul (2024)," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ellahie, Atif, 2024. "Accounting for bubbles: A discussion of Arif and Sul (2024)," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2).
    2. Chichernea, Doina C. & Holder, Anthony D. & Petkevich, Alex, 2015. "Does return dispersion explain the accrual and investment anomalies?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-148.
    3. Simlai, Prodosh E., 2016. "Time-varying risk, mispricing attributes, and the accrual premium," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 150-161.
    4. Jacobs, Heiko, 2015. "What explains the dynamics of 100 anomalies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 65-85.
    5. Beaver, William & McNichols, Maureen & Price, Richard, 2016. "The costs and benefits of long-short investing: A perspective on the market efficiency literature," Journal of Accounting Literature, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-18.
    6. David Hirshleifer & Kewei Hou & Siew Hong Teoh, 2012. "The Accrual Anomaly: Risk or Mispricing?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 320-335, February.
    7. Wang, Feifei & Yan, Xuemin Sterling & Zheng, Lingling, 2024. "Institutional trading, news, and accounting anomalies," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1).
    8. Andrew Detzel & Philipp Schaberl & Jack Strauss, 2018. "There are two very different accruals anomalies," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(4), pages 581-609, September.
    9. Jeremiah Green & John R. M. Hand & Mark T. Soliman, 2011. "Going, Going, Gone? The Apparent Demise of the Accruals Anomaly," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 797-816, May.
    10. Richardson, Scott & Tuna, Irem & Wysocki, Peter, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: A review of recent research advances," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 410-454, December.
    11. Jonathan Lewellen & Robert J. Resutek, 2016. "The predictive power of investment and accruals," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1046-1080, December.
    12. Chad R. Larson & Richard Sloan & Jenny Zha Giedt, 2018. "Defining, measuring, and modeling accruals: a guide for researchers," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 827-871, September.
    13. Ming‐Chang Wang & Yu‐Jia Ding, 2021. "Does the quarterly accrual anomaly exist in Taiwan's stock market? Evidence from Manager's earnings management," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 688-701, April.
    14. Dana Hollie & Philip B. Shane & Qiuhong Zhao & Steven Cahan, 2017. "The role of financial analysts in stock market efficiency with respect to annual earnings and its cash and accrual components," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(1), pages 199-237, March.
    15. Cordeiro Moreira, Jeíce Catrine & Lima, Gerlando A.S.F. & Góis, Alan Diógenes, 2019. "Effects of institutional factors on the accruals anomaly in Latin America," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-1.
    16. Tatiana Fedyk & Zvi Singer & Theodore Sougiannis, 2020. "The Accrual Anomaly: Accrual Originations, Accrual Reversals, and Resolution of Uncertainty," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 885-916, June.
    17. Robert F. Stambaugh & Yu Yuan, 2017. "Mispricing Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 1270-1315.
    18. Shi, Linna & Zhang, Huai & Guo, Jun, 2014. "Analyst cash flow forecasts and pricing of accruals," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 95-105.
    19. Feifei Wang & Xuemin Sterling Yan & Lingling Zheng, 2024. "Do sophisticated investors follow fundamental analysis strategies? Evidence from hedge funds and mutual funds," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 1097-1146, June.
    20. Wu, Juan (Julie) & Zhang, Jianzhong (Andrew), 2019. "Short selling and market anomalies," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:78:y:2024:i:2:s0165410124000417. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jae .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.