IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v31y2015i2p561-567.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Applied mean-ETL optimization in using earnings forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Shao, Barret Pengyuan
  • Rachev, Svetlozar T.
  • Mu, Yu

Abstract

In this article, we apply the mean-expected tail loss (ETL) portfolio optimization to the consensus temporary earnings forecasting (CTEF) data from global equities. The time series model with multivariate normal tempered stable (MNTS) innovations is used to generate the out-of-sample scenarios for the portfolio optimization. We find that (1) the CTEF variable continues to be of value in portfolio construction, (2) the mean-ETL portfolio optimization produces statistically significant active returns, and (3) the active returns generated in the mean-ETL portfolio with CTEF indicate a statistically significant stock selection.

Suggested Citation

  • Shao, Barret Pengyuan & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Mu, Yu, 2015. "Applied mean-ETL optimization in using earnings forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 561-567.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:31:y:2015:i:2:p:561-567
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.10.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207014001460
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    2. Guerard, John B. & Markowitz, Harry & Xu, GanLin, 2015. "Earnings forecasting in a global stock selection model and efficient portfolio construction and management," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 550-560.
    3. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Mustafa Gultekin, 1981. "Expectations and Share Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(9), pages 975-987, September.
    4. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
    5. Kim, Young Shin & Giacometti, Rosella & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Mignacca, Domenico, 2012. "Measuring financial risk and portfolio optimization with a non-Gaussian multivariate model," Working Paper Series in Economics 44, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Business Engineering.
    6. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "New Methods in Statistical Economics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 421-421.
    7. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Eugene F. Fama, 1963. "Mandelbrot and the Stable Paretian Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 420-420.
    9. Guerard, John Jr. & Blin, John & Bender, Steve, 1998. "Forecasting earnings composite variables, financial anomalies, and efficient Japanese and U.S. portfolios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 255-259, June.
    10. Rockafellar, R. Tyrrell & Uryasev, Stanislav, 2002. "Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1443-1471, July.
    11. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xia, Hui & Min, Xinyu & Deng, Shijie, 2015. "Effectiveness of earnings forecasts in efficient global portfolio construction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 568-574.
    2. Guerard, John B. & Markowitz, Harry & Xu, GanLin, 2015. "Earnings forecasting in a global stock selection model and efficient portfolio construction and management," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 550-560.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:31:y:2015:i:2:p:561-567. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.