Paid-incurred chain claims reserving method
We present a novel stochastic model for claims reserving that allows us to combine claims payments and incurred losses information. The main idea is to combine two claims reserving models (Hertig's (1985) model and Gogol's (1993) model ) leading to a log-normal paid-incurred chain (PIC) model. Using a Bayesian point of view for the parameter modelling we derive in this Bayesian PIC model the full predictive distribution of the outstanding loss liabilities. On the one hand, this allows for an analytical calculation of the claims reserves and the corresponding conditional mean square error of prediction. On the other hand, simulation algorithms provide any other statistics and risk measure on these claims reserves.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gogol, Daniel, 1993. "Using expected loss ratios in reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 297-299, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:46:y:2010:i:3:p:568-579. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.