One-year reserve risk including a tail factor: closed formula and bootstrap approaches
In this paper, we detail the main simulation methods used in practice to measure one-year reserve risk, and describe the bootstrap method providing an empirical distribution of the Claims Development Result (CDR) whose variance is identical to the closed-form expression of the prediction error proposed by Wüthrich et al. (2008). In particular, we integrate the stochastic modeling of a tail factor in the bootstrap procedure. We demonstrate the equivalence with existing analytical results and develop closed-form expressions for the error of prediction including a tail factor. A numerical example is given at the end of this study.
|Date of creation:||01 Jul 2011|
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|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00605329v2|
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- Buchwalder, Markus & Bühlmann, Hans & Merz, Michael & Wüthrich, Mario V., 2006. "The Mean Square Error of Prediction in the Chain Ladder Reserving Method (Mack and Murphy Revisited)," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(02), pages 521-542, November.
- England, Peter & Verrall, Richard, 1999. "Analytic and bootstrap estimates of prediction errors in claims reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 281-293, December.
- England, P. D. & Verrall, R. J., 2006. "Predictive Distributions of Outstanding Liabilities in General Insurance," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(02), pages 221-270, September.
- England, Peter, 2002. "Addendum to "Analytic and bootstrap estimates of prediction errors in claims reserving"," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 461-466, December.
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