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Relative valuation and analyst target price forecasts

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  • Da, Zhi
  • Schaumburg, Ernst

Abstract

We document that within industry relative valuations implicit in analyst target prices do provide investors with valuable information although the implied absolute valuations themselves are much less informative. Importantly, our findings are not merely a small stock phenomenon but apply to the sample of S&P 500 stocks and do not rely on trading at the exact time of announcement. Using a large database of target price announcements from 1997 to 2004, we construct a simple strategy based on target price implied relative valuations and show that the resulting abnormal return is both economically and statistically significant and not easily explained by transaction costs alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Da, Zhi & Schaumburg, Ernst, 2011. "Relative valuation and analyst target price forecasts," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 161-192, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:14:y:2011:i:1:p:161-192
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Emre Ozdenoren & Kathy Yuan, 2012. "Stock Market Tournaments," FMG Discussion Papers dp706, Financial Markets Group.
    2. Artur Aiguzhinov & Ana Paula Serra & Carlos Soares, 2016. "Are rankings of financial analysts useful to investors?," CEF.UP Working Papers 1604, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    3. Campbell R. Harvey & Yan Liu & Heqing Zhu, 2014. ". . . and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 20592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Lavelle, Sean, 2016. "Market dynamics when participants rely on relative valuation," Economics Discussion Papers 2016-42, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    5. Ozdenoren, Emre & Yuan, Kathy, 2014. "Endogenous Contractual Externalities," CEPR Discussion Papers 10052, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Yang, Yan & Copeland, Laurence, 2014. "The Effects of Sentiment on Market Return and Volatility and The Cross-Sectional Risk Premium of Sentiment-affected Volatility," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2014/12, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    7. Gerritsen, Dirk F., 2015. "Security analysts’ target prices and takeover premiums," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 205-213.
    8. Jan Klobucnik & Daniel Kreutzmann & Soenke Sievers & Stefan Kanne, 2012. "To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals," Cologne Graduate School Working Paper Series 03-03, Cologne Graduate School in Management, Economics and Social Sciences.
    9. Stefan Kanne & Jan Klobucnik & Daniel Kreutzmann & Soenke Sievers, 2012. "To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(4), pages 405-428, December.

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