IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v74y2025ics1544612325000170.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can strict financial regulation improve analysts’ forecast accuracy? Evidence based on a quasi-natural experiment in China

Author

Listed:
  • Jiang, Tao
  • Wu, Gang

Abstract

The necessity of strict regulation in financial activities remains a topic of ongoing debate. Using China’s New Regulation on Asset Management (NRAM) as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that strict financial regulation can improve analysts’ forecast accuracy. Mechanism analysis shows that strict financial regulation increases analysts’ forecast accuracy by reducing the risk-taking level and increasing the media attention. We further show that this effect is stronger in firms that are followed by more analysts and those with more complex operations. Our findings support the theory regarding the effectiveness of strict financial supervision from the perspective of capital market information efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Tao & Wu, Gang, 2025. "Can strict financial regulation improve analysts’ forecast accuracy? Evidence based on a quasi-natural experiment in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:74:y:2025:i:c:s1544612325000170
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.106752
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612325000170
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2025.106752?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2011. "The Potato's Contribution to Population and Urbanization: Evidence From A Historical Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(2), pages 593-650.
    2. Darrell Duffie, 2018. "Financial Regulatory Reform After the Crisis: An Assessment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(10), pages 4835-4857, October.
    3. Allan H. Meltzer, 1967. "Major Issues in the Regulation of Financial Institutions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 482-482.
    4. Lucy F. Ackert & George Athanassakos, 1997. "Prior Uncertainty, Analyst Bias, And Subsequent Abnormal Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 263-273, June.
    5. Kane, Edward J, 1988. "Interaction of Financial and Regulatory Innovation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 328-334, May.
    6. Gregory S. Miller, 2006. "The Press as a Watchdog for Accounting Fraud," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 1001-1033, December.
    7. Ma, Yongfan & Hu, Xingcun, 2024. "Shadow banking and SME investment: Evidence from China's new asset management regulations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 332-349.
    8. Yi Chen & Ziying Fan & Xiaomin Gu & Li-An Zhou, 2020. "Arrival of Young Talent: The Send-Down Movement and Rural Education in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(11), pages 3393-3430, November.
    9. Dan Amiram & Wayne R. Landsman & Edward L. Owens & Stephen R. Stubben, 2018. "How are analysts’ forecasts affected by high uncertainty?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3-4), pages 295-318, March.
    10. Caprio, Gerard & D’Apice, Vincenzo & Ferri, Giovanni & Puopolo, Giovanni Walter, 2014. "Macro-financial determinants of the great financial crisis: Implications for financial regulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 114-129.
    11. Beltratti, Andrea & Stulz, René M., 2012. "The credit crisis around the globe: Why did some banks perform better?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 1-17.
    12. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Analyst Forecast Behavior," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(2), pages 565-590, June.
    13. Keys, Benjamin J. & Mukherjee, Tanmoy & Seru, Amit & Vig, Vikrant, 2009. "Financial regulation and securitization: Evidence from subprime loans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 700-720, July.
    14. Cowan, Arnold R. & Salotti, Valentina, 2020. "Anti-selective disclosure regulation and analyst forecast accuracy and usefulness," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Qin, Yi & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier & Zhong, Kaiyang, 2023. "Strong financial regulation and corporate bankruptcy risk in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    16. Bargeron, Leonce L. & Lehn, Kenneth M. & Zutter, Chad J., 2010. "Sarbanes-Oxley and corporate risk-taking," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 34-52, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bley, Jorg & Saad, Mohsen & Samet, Anis, 2019. "Auditor choice and bank risk taking," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 37-52.
    2. Mei-Chen Lin & J. Jimmy Yang, 2023. "Do lottery characteristics matter for analysts’ forecast behavior?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1057-1091, October.
    3. Chen, Zhongdong & Ebrahim, Alireza, 2018. "Turnover threat and CEO risk-taking behavior in the banking industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 87-105.
    4. Florian Meier, 2020. "The Age of Cheap Money and Passive Investing: Are Pro Forma Earnings Value Relevant?," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 1-1.
    5. Alin Marius Andries & Martin Brown, 2017. "Credit booms and busts in emerging markets," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 25(3), pages 377-437, July.
    6. Hans Degryse & Sanja Jakovljević & Steven Ongena, 2015. "A Review of Empirical Research on the Design and Impact of Regulation in the Banking Sector," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 423-443, December.
    7. Sinha, Rajesh Kumar, 2021. "Macro disagreement and analyst forecast properties," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1).
    8. Xue, Qinyuan & Zhan, Peng & Jin, Yifei & He, Hui, 2024. "Reputation, commitment, and financial market regulation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    9. Ahmad, Sardar & Akbar, Saeed & Halari, Anwar & Shah, Syed Zubair, 2021. "Organizational non-compliance with principles-based governance provisions and corporate risk-taking," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Dan Ma & Wenchun Wang, 2023. "Mandatory inclusive finance policy and small banks' operating performance: Evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(4), pages 4761-4777, December.
    11. Srivastav, Abhishek & Keasey, Kevin & Mollah, Sabur & Vallascas, Francesco, 2017. "CEO turnover in large banks: Does tail risk matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 37-55.
    12. Peng, Fei & Zhou, Shibiao & Zhou, Peng, 2023. "Local government fiscal stress and corporate risk-taking: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1677-1695.
    13. Po‐Chang Chen & Ganapathi S. Narayanamoorthy & Theodore Sougiannis & Hui Zhou, 2020. "Analyst underreaction and the post‐forecast revision drift," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(9-10), pages 1151-1181, October.
    14. Li, Shan & Wu, Jianhong & Jiang, Yonglei & Yang, Xutao, 2024. "Impacts of the sea-rail intermodal transport policy on carbon emission reduction: The China case study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 211-223.
    15. Amanjot Singh & Harminder Singh & Venura Welagedara, 2024. "Aggregate uncertainty, information acquisition, and analyst stock recommendations," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 604-640, December.
    16. Baghdadi, Ghasan A. & Nguyen, Lily H.G. & Podolski, Edward J., 2020. "Board co-option and default risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. Michael Bradley & Dong Chen, 2015. "Does Board Independence Reduce the Cost of Debt?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 15-47, March.
    18. Walter Gontarek & Yacine Belghitar, 2021. "CEO chairman controversy: evidence from the post financial crisis period," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 675-713, February.
    19. Pawel Bilinski, 2023. "Analyst Research Activity During the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 59(4), pages 1041-1073, December.
    20. Qi Zhang & Francesco Vallascas & Kevin Keasey & Charlie X. Cai, 2015. "Are Market‐Based Measures of Global Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions Useful to Regulators and Supervisors?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(7), pages 1403-1442, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial regulation; Analysts’ forecast accuracy;

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:74:y:2025:i:c:s1544612325000170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.