Market fraction hypothesis: A proposed test
This paper presents and formalizes the Market Fraction Hypothesis (MFH), and also tests it under empirical datasets. The MFH states that the fraction of the different types of trading strategies that exist in a financial market changes (swings) over time. However, while such swinging has been observed in several agent-based financial models, a common assumption of these models is that the trading strategy types are static and pre-specified. In addition, although the above swinging observation has been made in the past, it has never been formalized into a concrete hypothesis. In this paper, we formalize the MFH by presenting its main constituents. Formalizing the MFH is very important, since it has not happened before and because it allows us to formulate tests that examine the plausibility of this hypothesis. Testing the hypothesis is also important, because it can give us valuable information about the dynamics of the market's microstructure. Our testing methodology follows a novel approach, where the trading strategies are neither static, nor pre-specified, as in the case in the traditional agent-based financial model literature. In order to do this, we use a new agent-based financial model which employs genetic programming as a rule-inference engine, and self-organizing maps as a clustering machine. We then run tests under 10 international markets and find that some parts of the hypothesis are not well-supported by the data. In fact, we find that while the swinging feature can be observed, it only happens among a few strategy types. Thus, even if many strategy types exist in a market, only a few of them can attract a high number of traders for long periods of time.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, .
"Learning To Be Overconfident,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
5-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, . "Learning To Be Overconfident," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 05-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Gilli, M. & Winker, P., 2003. "A global optimization heuristic for estimating agent based models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 299-312, March.
- Alan Kirman, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-156.
- Henrik Amilon, 2003.
"Estimation of an Adaptive Stock Market Model with Heterogeneous Agents,"
Research Paper Series
107, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Amilon, Henrik, 2008. "Estimation of an adaptive stock market model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 342-362, March.
- Amilon, Henrik, 2005. "Estimation of an Adaptive Stock Market Model with Heterogeneous Agents," Working Paper Series 177, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- David Laibson, 1997.
"Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 112(2), pages 443-478.
- Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
- De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
- Mark Austin & Graham Bates & Michael Dempster & Vasco Leemans & Stacy Williams, 2004. "Adaptive systems for foreign exchange trading," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 37-45.
- Boswijk, H.P. & Hommes C.H. & Manzan, S., 2005.
"Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices,"
CeNDEF Working Papers
05-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
- Allen, Franklin & Karjalainen, Risto, 1999. "Using genetic algorithms to find technical trading rules," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 245-271, February.
- Lux, Thomas, 1997. "Time variation of second moments from a noise trader/infection model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-38, November.
- Peter Winker and Manfred Gilli, 2001.
"Indirect Estimation of the Parameters of Agent Based Models of Financial Markets,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2001
59, Society for Computational Economics.
- Manfred GILLI, & Peter WINKER, 2001. "Indirect Estimation of the Parameters of Agent Based Models of Financial Markets," FAME Research Paper Series rp38, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
- Peter Winker & Manfred Gilli, 2002. "Indirect Estimation of the Parameters of Agent Based Models of Financial Markets," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 314, Society for Computational Economics.
- Winmker, P. & Gilli, M., 2001. "Indirect Estimation of the Parameters of Agent Based Models of Financial Markets," Papers 38, Manitoba - Department of Economics.
- Brock, W. A., 1986. "Distinguishing random and deterministic systems: Abridged version," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 168-195, October.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998.
"Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "Hetergeneous Beliefs and Routes to Chaos in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Working papers 9621, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Gur Huberman, 2001. "Contagious Speculation and a Cure for Cancer: A Nonevent that Made Stock Prices Soar," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 387-396, 02.
- De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1987. " Further Evidence on Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonalit y," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 557-81, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:23:y:2012:i:c:p:41-54. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.