IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v328y2025ics0360544225019759.html

Enhancing parameter prediction in gas-fired boiler systems through node similarity-based feature aggregation

Author

Listed:
  • Xiao, Guolin
  • Lang, Qi
  • Gao, Xiaori
  • Lu, Wei
  • Liu, Xiaodong

Abstract

Accurate sensor network prediction is crucial for improving industrial boiler efficiency and safety. While existing predictive models show promise, they are constrained by several limitations: (i) insufficient integration of interpretable multi-level spatiotemporal information, (ii) over-reliance on static topologies and shallow features, and (iii) limited continuity and adaptability in complex environments. To address these challenges, we propose a novel framework to improve parameter prediction in gas-fired boiler systems through node similarity-based feature aggregation. First, we apply a node similarity-based multi-level aggregation strategy for interpretable multi-scale integration. Next, dynamic graph learning, utilizing a higher-order graph convolutional network, captures the evolving relationships between sensors and time steps. Additionally, continuous modeling is facilitated by a spatiotemporal ordinary differential equation solver, which overcomes the limitations of discretized time steps. Real-world evaluations show our approach improves accuracy and robustness, even with sensor failures. Furthermore, the continuous model supports predictions at any time step. This approach provides a foundation for data-driven parameter prediction and the modeling of interacting industrial components.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao, Guolin & Lang, Qi & Gao, Xiaori & Lu, Wei & Liu, Xiaodong, 2025. "Enhancing parameter prediction in gas-fired boiler systems through node similarity-based feature aggregation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:328:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225019759
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136333
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225019759
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2025.136333?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boussaid, Taha & Rousset, François & Scuturici, Vasile-Marian & Clausse, Marc, 2024. "Enabling fast prediction of district heating networks transients via a physics-guided graph neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 370(C).
    2. Wang, Tiantian & Liu, Xuemin & Zhang, Yang & Zhang, Hai, 2024. "Thermodynamic and emission characteristics of a hydrogen-enriched natural gas-fired boiler integrated with external flue gas recirculation and waste heat recovery," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    3. Xiaoyun Yuan & Yong Wang & Zhihao Xu & Tiankuang Zhou & Lu Fang, 2023. "Training large-scale optoelectronic neural networks with dual-neuron optical-artificial learning," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Xiao, Guolin & Gao, Xiaori & Lu, Wei & Liu, Xiaodong & Asghar, Aamer Bilal & Jiang, Liu & Jing, Wenlin, 2023. "A physically based air proportioning methodology for optimized combustion in gas-fired boilers considering both heat release and NOx emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    5. Beccali, Marco & Bonomolo, Marina & Martorana, Francesca & Catrini, Pietro & Buscemi, Alessandro, 2022. "Electrical hybrid heat pumps assisted by natural gas boilers: a review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    6. Ma, Xin & Peng, Bo & Ma, Xiangxue & Tian, Changbin & Yan, Yi, 2023. "Multi-timescale optimization scheduling of regional integrated energy system based on source-load joint forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    7. Jia, Xiongjie & Sang, Yichen & Li, Yanjun & Du, Wei & Zhang, Guolei, 2022. "Short-term forecasting for supercharged boiler safety performance based on advanced data-driven modelling framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).
    8. Anna Manowska & Aurelia Rybak & Artur Dylong & Joachim Pielot, 2021. "Forecasting of Natural Gas Consumption in Poland Based on ARIMA-LSTM Hybrid Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-14, December.
    9. Wang, Jing & Rickman, Dan S. & Yu, Yihua, 2022. "Dynamics between global value chain participation, CO2 emissions, and economic growth: Evidence from a panel vector autoregression model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    10. Fan, Yuchen & Liu, Xin & Zhang, Chaoqun & Li, Chi & Li, Xinying & Wang, Heyang, 2024. "Dynamic prediction of boiler NOx emission with graph convolutional gated recurrent unit model optimized by genetic algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    11. Li, Ruilian & Zeng, Deliang & Li, Tingting & Ti, Baozhong & Hu, Yong, 2023. "Real-time prediction of SO2 emission concentration under wide range of variable loads by convolution-LSTM VE-transformer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    12. Wu, Zheng & Zhang, Yue & Dong, Ze, 2024. "NOx concentration prediction based on multi-channel fused spectral temporal graph neural network in coal-fired power plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    13. Yang, Chao & Liang, Gaoqi & Liu, Jinjie & Liu, Guolong & Yang, Hongming & Zhao, Junhua & Dong, Zhaoyang, 2023. "A non-intrusive carbon emission accounting method for industrial corporations from the perspective of modern power systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    14. Lim, Bryan & Arık, Sercan Ö. & Loeff, Nicolas & Pfister, Tomas, 2021. "Temporal Fusion Transformers for interpretable multi-horizon time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1748-1764.
    15. Wang, Xinlin & Yao, Zhihao & Papaefthymiou, Marios, 2023. "A real-time electrical load forecasting and unsupervised anomaly detection framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 330(PA).
    16. Bilal S. A. Alhayani & Haci llhan, 2021. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Visual sensor intelligent module based image transmission in industrial manufacturing for monitoring and manipulation problems," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 597-610, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Chao & Liu, Guofu & Zhu, Qingyao & Song, Angang & Xu, Dan & Zhang, Yuheng & Shen, Dekui & Gao, Bo, 2025. "Prediction of NOx concentration based on interpretable convolutional gated recurrent unit with clustering-extracting features," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    2. Dong, Ze & Jiang, Wei & Wu, Zheng & Zhao, Xinxin & Sun, Ming, 2025. "Prediction of NOx emission from SCR zonal ammonia injection system of boiler based on ensemble incremental learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    3. Frederick Nsambu Kijjambu & Benjamin Musiita & Asaph Kaburura Katarangi & Geoffrey Kahangane & Sheilla Akampwera, 2023. "Determinants of Uganda’s Debt Sustainability: The Public Debt Dynamics Model in Perspective," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 15(4), pages 106-124.
    4. Yin, Boyi & Zhu, Wenjiang & Tang, Cheng & Wang, Can & Xu, Xinhai, 2025. "Hierarchical optimal scheduling of IES considering SOFC degradation, internal and external uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 381(C).
    5. Hoang Anh Nguyen & Nhat Hoang Bach, 2026. "QI-HRNN: a quantum-inspired hybrid framework for resilient currency forecasting under extreme market conditions," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 1-40, June.
    6. Jang, Junkyu, 2025. "Selective news selection model for explainable stock prediction via cross-attention integration," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PD).
    7. Wang, Xinlin & Wang, Hao & Li, Shengping & Jin, Haizhen, 2024. "A reinforcement learning-based online learning strategy for real-time short-term load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    8. Frank, Johannes, 2023. "Forecasting realized volatility in turbulent times using temporal fusion transformers," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 03/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    9. He, Miao & Jiang, Weiwei & Gu, Weixi, 2024. "TriChronoNet: Advancing electricity price prediction with Multi-module fusion," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 371(C).
    10. Tiantian Tu, 2025. "Bridging Short- and Long-Term Dependencies: A CNN-Transformer Hybrid for Financial Time Series Forecasting," Papers 2504.19309, arXiv.org.
    11. Saima Akhtar & Sulman Shahzad & Asad Zaheer & Hafiz Sami Ullah & Heybet Kilic & Radomir Gono & Michał Jasiński & Zbigniew Leonowicz, 2023. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Models: A Review of Challenges, Progress, and the Road Ahead," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-29, May.
    12. Wang, Ziwei & Fan, Wei & Lin, Zixuan & Yu, Haiquan & Yu, Cong & Li, Yu & Zhou, Wei, 2025. "Dynamic prediction of NOx generation concentration based on Kolmogorov–Arnold Network integrated deep learning method for a 660 MW coal-fired boiler," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    13. Luo, Heng & Sun, Ying & Tao, Xiaosha & Tan, Wenwu & Kamarudin, Fakarudin, 2024. "Effects of global value chains on energy efficiency in G20 countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    14. Feng, Zhanyu & Zhang, Jian & Jiang, Han & Yao, Xuejian & Qian, Yu & Zhang, Haiyan, 2024. "Energy consumption prediction strategy for electric vehicle based on LSTM-transformer framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    15. Ali Atiah Alzahrani, 2025. "Multi-Agent Regime-Conditioned Diffusion (MARCD) for CVaR-Constrained Portfolio Decisions," Papers 2510.10807, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    16. Sengupta, Shovon & Chakraborty, Tanujit & Singh, Sunny Kumar, 2025. "Forecasting CPI inflation under economic policy and geopolitical uncertainties," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 953-981.
    17. Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2026. "Using Transformers and Reinforcement Learning as Narrative Filters in Macroeconomics," Working Papers No 02/2026, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    18. Dong, Hanjiang & Zhu, Jizhong & Li, Shenglin & Wu, Wanli & Zhu, Haohao & Fan, Junwei, 2023. "Short-term residential household reactive power forecasting considering active power demand via deep Transformer sequence-to-sequence networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    19. Ma, Tian & Wang, Wanwan & Jiang, Fuwei, 2025. "Machine learning the performance of hedge fund," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    20. Konstantinos S. Boulas & Georgios D. Dounias & Chrissoleon T. Papadopoulos, 2023. "A hybrid evolutionary algorithm approach for estimating the throughput of short reliable approximately balanced production lines," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 823-852, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:328:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225019759. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.