Effect of electric vehicles and renewable electricity on future life cycle air emissions from China's road transport fleet

Recent studies suggest that electric vehicles (EV) have huge potential to reduce on-road air emissions. However, future emissions from China's road transport under different EV and renewable electricity (RE) development pathways have rarely been assessed from a life cycle perspective. This paper estimated the life cycle emissions of CO, NOX, PM, SO2, and CO2 from China's road transport between 2020 and 2050 under different future scenarios. The results indicate that rapid EV adoption combined with relatively slow RE expansion will significantly reduce CO and NOX emissions but increase PM, SO2, and CO2 emissions by 2050. In contrast, rapid EV development with synchronized RE expansion will reduce CO, NOX, and CO2 emissions but still increase PM and SO2 emissions. More rapid EV development will increasingly shift emissions from the vehicle use to vehicle and battery production. Moreover, the electrification of light- and heavy-duty passenger vehicles and light- and heavy-duty trucks drive reductions in CO, NOX, and CO2 emissions but increases in PM and SO2 emissions. Our study suggests that synchronized fast development for RE and EVs can reduce emissions from vehicle use and energy supply chain but efforts are needed to mitigate emissions from upstream processes in vehicle and battery production.