Explainable district heating load forecasting by means of a reservoir computing deep learning architecture
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.134641
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to
for a different version of it.References listed on IDEAS
- Wang, Zhijin & Liu, Xiufeng & Huang, Yaohui & Zhang, Peisong & Fu, Yonggang, 2023. "A multivariate time series graph neural network for district heat load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
- Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
- Guelpa, Elisa & Marincioni, Ludovica & Capone, Martina & Deputato, Stefania & Verda, Vittorio, 2019. "Thermal load prediction in district heating systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 693-703.
- Castillo, Victhalia Zapata & Boer, Harmen-Sytze de & Muñoz, Raúl Maícas & Gernaat, David E.H.J. & Benders, René & van Vuuren, Detlef, 2022. "Future global electricity demand load curves," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
- Xue, Puning & Jiang, Yi & Zhou, Zhigang & Chen, Xin & Fang, Xiumu & Liu, Jing, 2019. "Multi-step ahead forecasting of heat load in district heating systems using machine learning algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
- Mehrnaz Anvari & Elisavet Proedrou & Benjamin Schäfer & Christian Beck & Holger Kantz & Marc Timme, 2022. "Data-driven load profiles and the dynamics of residential electricity consumption," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
- Chung, Won Hee & Gu, Yeong Hyeon & Yoo, Seong Joon, 2022. "District heater load forecasting based on machine learning and parallel CNN-LSTM attention," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
- Verbeke, Stijn & Audenaert, Amaryllis, 2018. "Thermal inertia in buildings: A review of impacts across climate and building use," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2300-2318.
- Filipović, Sanja & Lior, Noam & Radovanović, Mirjana, 2022. "The green deal – just transition and sustainable development goals Nexus," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
- Yao, Shuai & Wu, Jianzhong & Qadrdan, Meysam, 2024. "A state-of-the-art analysis and perspectives on the 4th/5th generation district heating and cooling systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
- Lake, Andrew & Rezaie, Behanz & Beyerlein, Steven, 2017. "Review of district heating and cooling systems for a sustainable future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 417-425.
- Fang, Tingting & Lahdelma, Risto, 2016. "Evaluation of a multiple linear regression model and SARIMA model in forecasting heat demand for district heating system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 544-552.
- Fischer, David & Madani, Hatef, 2017. "On heat pumps in smart grids: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 342-357.
- Buffa, Simone & Cozzini, Marco & D’Antoni, Matteo & Baratieri, Marco & Fedrizzi, Roberto, 2019. "5th generation district heating and cooling systems: A review of existing cases in Europe," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 504-522.
- Bergsteinsson, Hjörleifur G. & Møller, Jan Kloppenborg & Nystrup, Peter & Pálsson, Ólafur Pétur & Guericke, Daniela & Madsen, Henrik, 2021. "Heat load forecasting using adaptive temporal hierarchies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Zeng, Huanze & Wu, Binrong & Fang, Haoyu & Lin, Jiacheng, 2025. "Interpretable wind speed forecasting through two-stage decomposition with comprehensive relative importance analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 392(C).
- Shadi, Mohammad Reza & Mirshekali, Hamid & Shaker, Hamid Reza, 2025. "Explainable artificial intelligence for energy systems maintenance: A review on concepts, current techniques, challenges, and prospects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
- Hu, Jinxue & Duan, Pengfei & Cao, Xiaodong & Xue, Qingwen & Zhao, Bingxu & Zhao, Xiaoyu & Yuan, Xiaoyang & Zhang, Chenyang, 2025. "A multi-energy load forecasting method based on the Mixture-of-Experts model and dynamic multilevel attention mechanism," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
- Liu, Zhikai & Dai, Ting & Zhang, Lian & Xu, Xin & Zhang, Qi & Wang, Yaran, 2025. "Hydrothermal modeling and decoupling analysis for secondary district heating systems: A digital twin approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Huang, Yaohui & Zhao, Yuan & Wang, Zhijin & Liu, Xiufeng & Liu, Hanjing & Fu, Yonggang, 2023. "Explainable district heat load forecasting with active deep learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
- Guo, Yurun & Wang, Shugang & Wang, Jihong & Zhang, Tengfei & Ma, Zhenjun & Jiang, Shuang, 2024. "Key district heating technologies for building energy flexibility: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
- Song, Jiancai & Wang, Kangning & Bian, Tianxiang & Li, Wen & Dong, Qianxing & Chen, Lei & Xue, Guixiang & Wu, Xiangdong, 2025. "A novel heat load prediction algorithm based on fuzzy C-mean clustering and mixed positional encoding informer," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 388(C).
- Golmohamadi, Hessam & Larsen, Kim Guldstrand & Jensen, Peter Gjøl & Hasrat, Imran Riaz, 2022. "Integration of flexibility potentials of district heating systems into electricity markets: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
- Fan, Pengdan & Wang, Dan & Wang, Wei & Zhang, Xiuyu & Sun, Yuying, 2024. "A novel multi-energy load forecasting method based on building flexibility feature recognition technology and multi-task learning model integrating LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
- Meibodi, Saleh S. & Loveridge, Fleur, 2022. "The future role of energy geostructures in fifth generation district heating and cooling networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
- Quanwei, Tan & Guijun, Xue & Wenju, Xie, 2024. "MGMI: A novel deep learning model based on short-term thermal load prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 376(PA).
- Tan, Quanwei & Cao, Chunhua & Xue, Guijun & Xie, Wenju, 2024. "Short-term heating load forecasting model based on SVMD and improved informer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
- Trabert, Ulrich & Pag, Felix & Orozaliev, Janybek & Jordan, Ulrike & Vajen, Klaus, 2024. "Peak shaving at system level with a large district heating substation using deep learning forecasting models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
- Capone, Martina & Guelpa, Elisa & Verda, Vittorio, 2023. "Potential for supply temperature reduction of existing district heating substations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
- Gholami, M. & Barbaresi, A. & Torreggiani, D. & Tassinari, P., 2020. "Upscaling of spatial energy planning, phases, methods, and techniques: A systematic review through meta-analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
- Gong, Mingju & Zhao, Yin & Sun, Jiawang & Han, Cuitian & Sun, Guannan & Yan, Bo, 2022. "Load forecasting of district heating system based on Informer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
- Yuan, Jianjuan & Huang, Ke & Han, Zhao & Zhou, Zhihua & Lu, Shilei, 2021. "A new feedback predictive model for improving the operation efficiency of heating station based on indoor temperature," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
- Runge, Jason & Saloux, Etienne, 2023. "A comparison of prediction and forecasting artificial intelligence models to estimate the future energy demand in a district heating system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
- Semmelmann, Leo & Hertel, Matthias & Kircher, Kevin J. & Mikut, Ralf & Hagenmeyer, Veit & Weinhardt, Christof, 2024. "The impact of heat pumps on day-ahead energy community load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).
- Guelpa, E. & Capone, M. & Sciacovelli, A. & Vasset, N. & Baviere, R. & Verda, V., 2023. "Reduction of supply temperature in existing district heating: A review of strategies and implementations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
- Nord, Natasa & Shakerin, Mohammad & Tereshchenko, Tymofii & Verda, Vittorio & Borchiellini, Romano, 2021. "Data informed physical models for district heating grids with distributed heat sources to understand thermal and hydraulic aspects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
- Vu, D.H. & Muttaqi, K.M. & Agalgaonkar, A.P. & Bouzerdoum, A., 2017. "Short-term electricity demand forecasting using autoregressive based time varying model incorporating representative data adjustment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 790-801.
- Yuan, Jianjuan & Zhou, Zhihua & Huang, Ke & Han, Zhao & Wang, Chendong & Lu, Shilei, 2021. "Analysis and evaluation of the operation data for achieving an on-demand heating consumption prediction model of district heating substation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
- Averfalk, Helge & Ingvarsson, Paul & Persson, Urban & Gong, Mei & Werner, Sven, 2017. "Large heat pumps in Swedish district heating systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1275-1284.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:318:y:2025:i:c:s036054422500283x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.