IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v299y2024ics0360544224012313.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A hybrid ensemble optimized BiGRU method for short-term photovoltaic generation forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Dai, Yeming
  • Yu, Weijie
  • Leng, Mingming

Abstract

In the context of prominent energy crisis, photovoltaic power (PV) generation has received increasing attention, then accurate PV generation forecasting is crucial for ensuring the smooth operation of power stations. However, existing research is insufficient in comprehensively analyzing the impact of PV generation volatility. To fill the gaps and enhance the prediction accuracy, this paper proposes a new hybrid forecasting method. We first introduce the Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOWESS) method to process the data and enhance the data stability, and use Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) and Random Forests (RF) for feature selection to improve the quality of input data. Then we use Attention mechanism and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) layer to optimize Bi-directional Gate Recurrent Unit (BiGRU) model and form a new hybrid model. Finally, based on the Bagging algorithm, we use ensemble learning to further optimize the hybrid BiGRU model to enhance the depth and performance. The proposed method is validated through case analysis results from two different locations, Xuhui District in Shanghai, China and the DKASC area in Alice Springs, Australia. The results demonstrate that, compared with other models, the developed method exhibits exceptional prediction performance and effectively enhances the accuracy of PV generation forecasting. Keywords: photovoltaic power generation; Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing; feature selection; ensemble learning; Bi-directional Gate Recurrent Unit.

Suggested Citation

  • Dai, Yeming & Yu, Weijie & Leng, Mingming, 2024. "A hybrid ensemble optimized BiGRU method for short-term photovoltaic generation forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:299:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224012313
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131458
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224012313
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2024.131458?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Lining & Mao, Mingxuan & Xie, Jili & Liao, Zheng & Zhang, Hao & Li, Huanxin, 2023. "Accurate solar PV power prediction interval method based on frequency-domain decomposition and LSTM model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    2. Niu, Tong & Li, Jinkai & Wei, Wei & Yue, Hui, 2022. "A hybrid deep learning framework integrating feature selection and transfer learning for multi-step global horizontal irradiation forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    3. Dai, Yeming & Wang, Yanxin & Leng, Mingming & Yang, Xinyu & Zhou, Qiong, 2022. "LOWESS smoothing and Random Forest based GRU model: A short-term photovoltaic power generation forecasting method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    4. Wang, Yun & Wang, Haibo & Srinivasan, Dipti & Hu, Qinghua, 2019. "Robust functional regression for wind speed forecasting based on Sparse Bayesian learning," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 43-60.
    5. Hassan, Jamal, 2014. "ARIMA and regression models for prediction of daily and monthly clearness index," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 421-427.
    6. Zhang, Chu & Ma, Huixin & Hua, Lei & Sun, Wei & Nazir, Muhammad Shahzad & Peng, Tian, 2022. "An evolutionary deep learning model based on TVFEMD, improved sine cosine algorithm, CNN and BiLSTM for wind speed prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    7. Ren, Xiaoying & Zhang, Fei & Zhu, Honglu & Liu, Yongqian, 2022. "Quad-kernel deep convolutional neural network for intra-hour photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhou, Kaile & Chu, Yibo & Hu, Rong, 2023. "Energy supply-demand interaction model integrating uncertainty forecasting and peer-to-peer energy trading," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    2. Qingyuan Wang & Longnv Huang & Jiehui Huang & Qiaoan Liu & Limin Chen & Yin Liang & Peter X. Liu & Chunquan Li, 2022. "A Hybrid Generative Adversarial Network Model for Ultra Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-16, July.
    3. Shengxiang Lv & Lin Wang & Sirui Wang, 2023. "A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, February.
    4. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    5. Zhao, Yincheng & Zhang, Guozhou & Hu, Weihao & Huang, Qi & Chen, Zhe & Blaabjerg, Frede, 2023. "Meta-learning based voltage control strategy for emergency faults of active distribution networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).
    6. Xiang Ying & Keke Zhao & Zhiqiang Liu & Jie Gao & Dongxiao He & Xuewei Li & Wei Xiong, 2022. "Wind Speed Prediction via Collaborative Filtering on Virtual Edge Expanding Graphs," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-16, June.
    7. Meng, Anbo & Zhang, Haitao & Yin, Hao & Xian, Zikang & Chen, Shu & Zhu, Zibin & Zhang, Zheng & Rong, Jiayu & Li, Chen & Wang, Chenen & Wu, Zhenbo & Deng, Weisi & Luo, Jianqiang & Wang, Xiaolin, 2023. "A novel multi-gradient evolutionary deep learning approach for few-shot wind power prediction using time-series GAN," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    8. Fei Zhang & Xiaoying Ren & Guidong Yang & Shulong Zhang & Yongqian Liu, 2024. "Optimization Method of Multi-Mode Model Predictive Control for Wind Farm Reactive Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-20, March.
    9. Wang, Yuhan & Zhang, Chu & Fu, Yongyan & Suo, Leiming & Song, Shihao & Peng, Tian & Shahzad Nazir, Muhammad, 2023. "Hybrid solar radiation forecasting model with temporal convolutional network using data decomposition and improved artificial ecosystem-based optimization algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    10. Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Wang, Lin, 2023. "Multivariate wind speed forecasting based on multi-objective feature selection approach and hybrid deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    11. Beibei Hu & Yunhe Cheng, 2023. "Prediction of Regional Carbon Price in China Based on Secondary Decomposition and Nonlinear Error Correction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-22, May.
    12. Zhao, Xinyu & Bai, Mingliang & Yang, Xusheng & Liu, Jinfu & Yu, Daren & Chang, Juntao, 2021. "Short-term probabilistic predictions of wind multi-parameter based on one-dimensional convolutional neural network with attention mechanism and multivariate copula distribution estimation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    13. Gairaa, Kacem & Khellaf, Abdallah & Messlem, Youcef & Chellali, Farouk, 2016. "Estimation of the daily global solar radiation based on Box–Jenkins and ANN models: A combined approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 238-249.
    14. Liu, Wenhui & Bai, Yulong & Yue, Xiaoxin & Wang, Rui & Song, Qi, 2024. "A wind speed forcasting model based on rime optimization based VMD and multi-headed self-attention-LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    15. Siavash Asiaban & Nezmin Kayedpour & Arash E. Samani & Dimitar Bozalakov & Jeroen D. M. De Kooning & Guillaume Crevecoeur & Lieven Vandevelde, 2021. "Wind and Solar Intermittency and the Associated Integration Challenges: A Comprehensive Review Including the Status in the Belgian Power System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-41, May.
    16. Ren, Kezheng & Liu, Jun & Wu, Zeyang & Liu, Xinglei & Nie, Yongxin & Xu, Haitao, 2024. "A data-driven DRL-based home energy management system optimization framework considering uncertain household parameters," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 355(C).
    17. Yang, Zhongsen & Wang, Yong & Zhou, Ying & Wang, Li & Ye, Lingling & Luo, Yongxian, 2023. "Forecasting China's electricity generation using a novel structural adaptive discrete grey Bernoulli model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    18. Zhang, Chu & Li, Zhengbo & Ge, Yida & Liu, Qianlong & Suo, Leiming & Song, Shihao & Peng, Tian, 2024. "Enhancing short-term wind speed prediction based on an outlier-robust ensemble deep random vector functional link network with AOA-optimized VMD," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    19. Yongning Zhang & Xiaoying Ren & Fei Zhang & Yulei Liu & Jierui Li, 2024. "A Deep Learning-Based Dual-Scale Hybrid Model for Ultra-Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-22, August.
    20. Wang, Huaizhi & Xue, Wenli & Liu, Yitao & Peng, Jianchun & Jiang, Hui, 2020. "Probabilistic wind power forecasting based on spiking neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:299:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224012313. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.