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Enhancing short-term wind speed prediction based on an outlier-robust ensemble deep random vector functional link network with AOA-optimized VMD

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  • Zhang, Chu
  • Li, Zhengbo
  • Ge, Yida
  • Liu, Qianlong
  • Suo, Leiming
  • Song, Shihao
  • Peng, Tian

Abstract

Wind speed prediction is a crucial aspect in the utilization of wind energy. In this paper, a wind speed prediction model based on an outlier-robust ensemble deep random vector functional link network (ORedRVFL) and arithmetic optimization algorithm-optimized variational mode decomposition (AOA-VMD) is designed. First, the penalty factor and the number of mode decompositions of VMD are optimized using the AOA algorithm and the original data are decomposed using the optimized VMD. Then the decomposed data is predicted using the ensemble deep random vector functional link network (edRVFL) model. The edRVFL uses rich intermediate features for the final decision, which can make the final result closer to the real data. In order to strengthen the anti-interference ability to the outliers, this paper robustly improves the edRVFL model, and the improved model is called ORedRVFL. ORedRVFL reduces the impact of outliers by introducing regularization and norm to balance the relationship between training error and weights. The experiments have proved that the model proposed in this paper outperforms other models in terms of anti-interference ability and prediction accuracy.

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  • Zhang, Chu & Li, Zhengbo & Ge, Yida & Liu, Qianlong & Suo, Leiming & Song, Shihao & Peng, Tian, 2024. "Enhancing short-term wind speed prediction based on an outlier-robust ensemble deep random vector functional link network with AOA-optimized VMD," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:296:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224009460
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131173
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Ruan, Guanqiang & Liu, Zixi & Cheng, Jinrun & Hu, Xing & Chen, Song & Liu, Shiwen & Guo, Yong & Yang, Kuo, 2024. "A deep learning model for predicting the state of energy in lithium-ion batteries based on magnetic field effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    3. Wang, Zheng & Peng, Tian & Zhang, Xuedong & Chen, Jialei & Qian, Shijie & Zhang, Chu, 2025. "Enhancing multi-step short-term solar radiation forecasting based on optimized generalized regularized extreme learning machine and multi-scale Gaussian data augmentation technique," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 377(PD).
    4. Pei, Jingyin & Dong, Yunxuan & Guo, Pinghui & Wu, Thomas & Hu, Jianming, 2024. "A Hybrid Dual Stream ProbSparse Self-Attention Network for spatial–temporal photovoltaic power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    5. Zhang, Chu & Tao, Zihan & Xiong, Jinlin & Qian, Shijie & Fu, Yongyan & Ji, Jie & Nazir, Muhammad Shahzad & Peng, Tian, 2024. "Research and application of a novel weight-based evolutionary ensemble model using principal component analysis for wind power prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    6. Sun, Xiaoying & Liu, Haizhong, 2024. "Multivariate short-term wind speed prediction based on PSO-VMD-SE-ICEEMDAN two-stage decomposition and Att-S2S," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).

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