IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v256y2022ics0360544222015717.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A regression learner-based approach for battery cycling ageing prediction―advances in energy management strategy and techno-economic analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Zhou, Yuekuan

Abstract

Renewable energy planning, electrochemical battery storages and advanced energy management strategies are flexible solutions for transformation towards smart grids, whereas the complex battery cycling ageing is nonlinearly dependent on intermittent renewable supply, stochastic load profiles and dynamic charging/discharging behaviors. In this study, a nonlinear mathematical model is developed to explore effective strategies for smart grids. A general regression learner-based battery cycling ageing prediction method is proposed for quantifications of lifetime battery cycling ageing and battery replacement times, including the database preparation, surrogate model training with typical feature extraction and classification, cross-validation, and performance prediction in various battery groups. A machine learning (ML) algorithm selection approach is proposed through the statistical analysis, to guide the accurate surrogate model development, considering the diversity in dynamic charging/discharging behaviours and intrinsic cycling ageing performances of each battery. Afterwards, a novel battery discharging control strategy is proposed, to address the contradiction between the economic cost-saving and the associated battery replacement cost. Last but not the least, the machine learning-based models are thereafter integrated in the district energy community for technical performance analysis. This study can provide a regression learner-based battery cycling ageing modelling method, a machine learning algorithm selection approach, and a holistic framework for systematic integration with avoidance on techno-economic performance overestimation, which is critical to guide renewable energy planning, electrochemical battery storages, and advanced energy management strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Yuekuan, 2022. "A regression learner-based approach for battery cycling ageing prediction―advances in energy management strategy and techno-economic analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:256:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222015717
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.124668
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544222015717
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124668?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhou, Yuekuan & Cao, Sunliang & Hensen, Jan L.M. & Lund, Peter D., 2019. "Energy integration and interaction between buildings and vehicles: A state-of-the-art review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Lu, L. & Yang, H.X., 2010. "Environmental payback time analysis of a roof-mounted building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) system in Hong Kong," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 3625-3631, December.
    3. Karunathilake, Hirushie & Hewage, Kasun & Prabatha, Tharindu & Ruparathna, Rajeev & Sadiq, Rehan, 2020. "Project deployment strategies for community renewable energy: A dynamic multi-period planning approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 237-258.
    4. Liu, Jia & Cao, Sunliang & Chen, Xi & Yang, Hongxing & Peng, Jinqing, 2021. "Energy planning of renewable applications in high-rise residential buildings integrating battery and hydrogen vehicle storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    5. Zheng, Siqian & Jin, Xin & Huang, Gongsheng & Lai, Alvin CK., 2022. "Coordination of commercial prosumers with distributed demand-side flexibility in energy sharing and management system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    6. Ugwoke, B. & Sulemanu, S. & Corgnati, S.P. & Leone, P. & Pearce, J.M., 2021. "Demonstration of the integrated rural energy planning framework for sustainable energy development in low-income countries: Case studies of rural communities in Nigeria," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Restrepo, Mauricio & Cañizares, Claudio A. & Simpson-Porco, John W. & Su, Peter & Taruc, John, 2021. "Optimization- and Rule-based Energy Management Systems at the Canadian Renewable Energy Laboratory microgrid facility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    8. Borge-Diez, David & Icaza, Daniel & Açıkkalp, Emin & Amaris, Hortensia, 2021. "Combined vehicle to building (V2B) and vehicle to home (V2H) strategy to increase electric vehicle market share," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    9. Jafari, Mina & Kavousi-Fard, Abdollah & Niknam, Taher & Avatefipour, Omid, 2021. "Stochastic synergies of urban transportation system and smart grid in smart cities considering V2G and V2S concepts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).
    10. Kristen A. Severson & Peter M. Attia & Norman Jin & Nicholas Perkins & Benben Jiang & Zi Yang & Michael H. Chen & Muratahan Aykol & Patrick K. Herring & Dimitrios Fraggedakis & Martin Z. Bazant & Step, 2019. "Data-driven prediction of battery cycle life before capacity degradation," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 4(5), pages 383-391, May.
    11. Zhou, Yuekuan, 2022. "Transition towards carbon-neutral districts based on storage techniques and spatiotemporal energy sharing with electrification and hydrogenation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    12. Zhou, Yuekuan, 2022. "Energy sharing and trading on a novel spatiotemporal energy network in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).
    13. Kathirgamanathan, Anjukan & De Rosa, Mattia & Mangina, Eleni & Finn, Donal P., 2021. "Data-driven predictive control for unlocking building energy flexibility: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    14. Gasser, Jan & Cai, Hanmin & Karagiannopoulos, Stavros & Heer, Philipp & Hug, Gabriela, 2021. "Predictive energy management of residential buildings while self-reporting flexibility envelope," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    15. Zheng, Siqian & Huang, Gongsheng & Lai, Alvin CK., 2021. "Techno-economic performance analysis of synergistic energy sharing strategies for grid-connected prosumers with distributed battery storages," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 1261-1278.
    16. Zabala, Laura & Febres, Jesus & Sterling, Raymond & López, Susana & Keane, Marcus, 2020. "Virtual testbed for model predictive control development in district cooling systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    17. Krese, Gorazd & Lampret, Žiga & Butala, Vincenc & Prek, Matjaž, 2018. "Determination of a Building's balance point temperature as an energy characteristic," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 1034-1049.
    18. Han, Xiaojuan & Liang, Yubo & Ai, Yaoyao & Li, Jianlin, 2018. "Economic evaluation of a PV combined energy storage charging station based on cost estimation of second-use batteries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 326-339.
    19. Zhou, Yuekuan & Zheng, Siqian & Zhang, Guoqiang, 2019. "Study on the energy performance enhancement of a new PCMs integrated hybrid system with the active cooling and hybrid ventilations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 111-128.
    20. Zhou, Yuekuan & Cao, Sunliang & Hensen, Jan L.M., 2021. "An energy paradigm transition framework from negative towards positive district energy sharing networks—Battery cycling aging, advanced battery management strategies, flexible vehicles-to-buildings in," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    21. Yan, Chengchu & Wang, Fengling & Pan, Yan & Shan, Kui & Kosonen, Risto, 2020. "A multi-timescale cold storage system within energy flexible buildings for power balance management of smart grids," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 626-634.
    22. Liu, Jia & Yang, Hongxing & Zhou, Yuekuan, 2021. "Peer-to-peer energy trading of net-zero energy communities with renewable energy systems integrating hydrogen vehicle storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    23. Saloux, Etienne & Candanedo, José A., 2021. "Model-based predictive control to minimize primary energy use in a solar district heating system with seasonal thermal energy storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    24. Fernández, I.J. & Calvillo, C.F. & Sánchez-Miralles, A. & Boal, J., 2013. "Capacity fade and aging models for electric batteries and optimal charging strategy for electric vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 35-43.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Yuekuan, 2023. "A dynamic self-learning grid-responsive strategy for battery sharing economy—multi-objective optimisation and posteriori multi-criteria decision making," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    2. Zhou, Yuekuan, 2022. "Incentivising multi-stakeholders’ proactivity and market vitality for spatiotemporal microgrids in Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Bay Area," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    3. Gu, Yuxuan & Wang, Jianxiao & Chen, Yuanbo & Xiao, Wei & Deng, Zhongwei & Chen, Qixin, 2023. "A simplified electro-chemical lithium-ion battery model applicable for in situ monitoring and online control," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    4. Zhou, Yuekuan, 2023. "Sustainable energy sharing districts with electrochemical battery degradation in design, planning, operation and multi-objective optimisation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 1324-1341.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhou, Yuekuan, 2023. "A dynamic self-learning grid-responsive strategy for battery sharing economy—multi-objective optimisation and posteriori multi-criteria decision making," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    2. Zhou, Yuekuan, 2022. "Energy sharing and trading on a novel spatiotemporal energy network in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).
    3. Zhou, Yuekuan, 2023. "Sustainable energy sharing districts with electrochemical battery degradation in design, planning, operation and multi-objective optimisation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 1324-1341.
    4. He, Yingdong & Zhou, Yuekuan & Liu, Jia & Liu, Zhengxuan & Zhang, Guoqiang, 2022. "An inter-city energy migration framework for regional energy balance through daily commuting fuel-cell vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    5. He, Yingdong & Zhou, Yuekuan & Wang, Zhe & Liu, Jia & Liu, Zhengxuan & Zhang, Guoqiang, 2021. "Quantification on fuel cell degradation and techno-economic analysis of a hydrogen-based grid-interactive residential energy sharing network with fuel-cell-powered vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    6. Zhou, Yuekuan, 2022. "Incentivising multi-stakeholders’ proactivity and market vitality for spatiotemporal microgrids in Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Bay Area," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    7. Liu, Jia & Zhou, Yuekuan & Yang, Hongxing & Wu, Huijun, 2022. "Net-zero energy management and optimization of commercial building sectors with hybrid renewable energy systems integrated with energy storage of pumped hydro and hydrogen taxis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    8. Zhou, Yuekuan & Lund, Peter D., 2023. "Peer-to-peer energy sharing and trading of renewable energy in smart communities ─ trading pricing models, decision-making and agent-based collaboration," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 177-193.
    9. Sima, Catalina Alexandra & Popescu, Claudia Laurenta & Popescu, Mihai Octavian & Roscia, Mariacristina & Seritan, George & Panait, Cornel, 2022. "Techno-economic assessment of university energy communities with on/off microgrid," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 538-553.
    10. Liu, Jia & Yang, Hongxing & Zhou, Yuekuan, 2021. "Peer-to-peer trading optimizations on net-zero energy communities with energy storage of hydrogen and battery vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    11. Liu, Jia & Yang, Hongxing & Zhou, Yuekuan, 2021. "Peer-to-peer energy trading of net-zero energy communities with renewable energy systems integrating hydrogen vehicle storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    12. Liu, Jia & Chen, Xi & Yang, Hongxing & Shan, Kui, 2021. "Hybrid renewable energy applications in zero-energy buildings and communities integrating battery and hydrogen vehicle storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    13. Liu, Xiaochen & Fu, Zhi & Qiu, Siyuan & Li, Shaojie & Zhang, Tao & Liu, Xiaohua & Jiang, Yi, 2023. "Building-centric investigation into electric vehicle behavior: A survey-based simulation method for charging system design," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    14. Zhou, Yuekuan, 2022. "Transition towards carbon-neutral districts based on storage techniques and spatiotemporal energy sharing with electrification and hydrogenation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    15. Barone, Giovanni & Buonomano, Annamaria & Forzano, Cesare & Giuzio, Giovanni Francesco & Palombo, Adolfo & Russo, Giuseppe, 2022. "Energy virtual networks based on electric vehicles for sustainable buildings: System modelling for comparative energy and economic analyses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    16. Liu, Jia & Zhou, Yuekuan & Yang, Hongxing & Wu, Huijun, 2022. "Uncertainty energy planning of net-zero energy communities with peer-to-peer energy trading and green vehicle storage considering climate changes by 2050 with machine learning methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    17. Zhou, Yuekuan & Cao, Sunliang & Hensen, Jan L.M., 2021. "An energy paradigm transition framework from negative towards positive district energy sharing networks—Battery cycling aging, advanced battery management strategies, flexible vehicles-to-buildings in," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    18. Liu, Zhengxuan & Zhou, Yuekuan & Yan, Jun & Tostado-Véliz, Marcos, 2023. "Frontier ocean thermal/power and solar PV systems for transformation towards net-zero communities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    19. da Silva, Samuel Filgueira & Eckert, Jony Javorski & Corrêa, Fernanda Cristina & Silva, Fabrício Leonardo & Silva, Ludmila C.A. & Dedini, Franco Giuseppe, 2022. "Dual HESS electric vehicle powertrain design and fuzzy control based on multi-objective optimization to increase driving range and battery life cycle," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    20. Zhou, Yuekuan & Zheng, Siqian & Zhang, Guoqiang, 2020. "Machine learning-based optimal design of a phase change material integrated renewable system with on-site PV, radiative cooling and hybrid ventilations—study of modelling and application in five clima," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:256:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222015717. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.