Assessing risks for New England's wholesale electricity market from wind power losses during extreme winter storms

In the United States, New England faces difficulties from severe winter weather, during which its power grid simultaneously experiences high natural gas prices and electricity demand, leading to spikes in wholesale electricity prices. In recent years, a significant amount of offshore wind power capacity has been planned for the region, and previous studies have suggested the presence of offshore wind could lower emissions and market prices during cold snaps. However, there has been limited consideration of potential wind power losses during extreme winter weather due to excessive wind speeds, which could lead to sudden losses of wind power. This aim of this study is to quantify risks associated with sudden wind power losses during extreme winter weather, especially the potential for these events to cause spikes in the wholesale electricity price. Results suggest that these so-called wind turbine “cut-out” events likely represent a minor risk compared to the loss of wind power due to low wind speeds and sudden drops in wind speeds during summer, when demand for electricity is higher. Overall, the benefits of having offshore wind power during extreme winter weather appear to outweigh the risks associated with relatively rare cut-out events caused by excessive wind speeds.