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Timing the investment grade securities market: Evidence from high quality bond funds

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  • Boney, Vaneesha
  • Comer, George
  • Kelly, Lynne

Abstract

We examine the ability of bond fund managers to shift assets between bonds and cash and across bonds of different maturities in order to capture the changes in their relative returns. As measured by estimated changes in portfolio allocations, we find strong evidence of perverse market timing ability between cash and investment grade securities, and our results indicate additional perverse timing across the bond maturity spectrum. Results are robust to an alternative performance metric. We present evidence that the survival of the majority of these funds despite their negative performance may reflect the value investors place on the portfolio diversification benefits of holding these funds.

Suggested Citation

  • Boney, Vaneesha & Comer, George & Kelly, Lynne, 2009. "Timing the investment grade securities market: Evidence from high quality bond funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 55-69, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:16:y:2009:i:1:p:55-69
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Adam, Tim & Guettler, Andre, 2015. "Pitfalls and perils of financial innovation: The use of CDS by corporate bond funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 204-214.
    2. Herrmann, Ulf & Scholz, Hendrik, 2013. "Short-term persistence in hybrid mutual fund performance: The role of style-shifting abilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2314-2328.
    3. Tim Adam & Andre Guettler, 2015. "Pitfalls and Perils of Financial Innovation: The Use of CDS by Corporate Bond Funds," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-013, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    4. George Comer & Javier Rodriguez, 2013. "A comparison of corporate versus government bond funds," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(4), pages 495-510, October.
    5. Dominika Paula Gałkiewicz, 2015. "Loss Potential and Disclosures Related to Credit Derivatives – A Cross-Country Comparison of Corporate Bond Funds under U.S. and German Regulation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-017, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    6. Lipton, Amy F. & Kish, Richard J., 2010. "Robust performance measures for high yield bond funds," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 332-340, August.
    7. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2011. "Fixed-income fund performance: Role of luck and ability in tail membership," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 379-392, June.
    8. Laura Andreu & Laurens Swinkels, 2012. "Performance evaluation of balanced pension plans," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 819-830, March.
    9. Moneta, Fabio, 2015. "Measuring bond mutual fund performance with portfolio characteristics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 223-242.
    10. Chen, Yong & Ferson, Wayne & Peters, Helen, 2010. "Measuring the timing ability and performance of bond mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 72-89, October.
    11. Jiang, George J. & Yuksel, H. Zafer, 2017. "What drives the “Smart-Money” effect? Evidence from investors’ money flow to mutual fund classes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 39-58.
    12. Yong Chen & Wayne Ferson & Helen Peters, 2009. "Measuring the Timing Ability and Performance of Bond Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 15318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Francesco Potente & Antonio Scalia, 2016. "Market timing and performance attribution in the ECB reserve management framework," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1062, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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