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Measuring the Timing Ability and Performance of Bond Mutual Funds

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  • Yong Chen
  • Wayne Ferson
  • Helen Peters

Abstract

This paper evaluates the ability of bond funds to "market time" nine common factors related to bond markets. Timing ability generates nonlinearity in fund returns as a function of common factors, but there are several non-timing-related sources of nonlinearity. Controlling for the non-timing-related nonlinearity is important. Funds' returns are more concave than benchmark returns, and this would appear as poor timing ability in naive models. With controls, the timing coefficients appear neutral to weakly positive. Adjusting for nonlinearity the performance of many bond funds is significantly negative on an after-cost basis, but significantly positive on a before-cost basis.

Suggested Citation

  • Yong Chen & Wayne Ferson & Helen Peters, 2009. "Measuring the Timing Ability and Performance of Bond Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 15318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15318
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cici, Gjergji & Gibson, Scott, 2010. "The performance of corporate-bond mutual funds: Evidence based on security-level holdings," CFR Working Papers 10-18, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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