A degradation path-dependent approach for remaining useful life estimation with an exact and closed-form solution
Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is regarded as one of the most central components in prognostics and health management (PHM). Accurate RUL estimation can enable failure prevention in a more controllable manner in that effective maintenance can be executed in appropriate time to correct impending faults. In this paper we consider the problem of estimating the RUL from observed degradation data for a general system. A degradation path-dependent approach for RUL estimation is presented through the combination of Bayesian updating and expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. The use of both Bayesian updating and EM algorithm to update the model parameters and RUL distribution at the time obtaining a newly observed data is a novel contribution of this paper, which makes the estimated RUL depend on the observed degradation data history. As two specific cases, a linear degradation model and an exponential-based degradation model are considered to illustrate the implementation of our presented approach. A major contribution under these two special cases is that our approach can obtain an exact and closed-form RUL distribution respectively, and the moment of the obtained RUL distribution from our presented approach exists. This contrasts sharply with the approximated results obtained in the literature for the same cases. To our knowledge, the RUL estimation approach presented in this paper for the two special cases is the only one that can provide an exact and closed-form RUL distribution utilizing the monitoring history. Finally, numerical examples for RUL estimation and a practical case study for condition-based replacement decision making with comparison to a previously reported approach are provided to substantiate the superiority of the proposed model.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wang, Wenbin, 2007. "A two-stage prognosis model in condition based maintenance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(3), pages 1177-1187, November.
- Wang, W. & Zhang, W., 2008. "An asset residual life prediction model based on expert judgments," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 496-505, July.
- Si, Xiao-Sheng & Wang, Wenbin & Hu, Chang-Hua & Zhou, Dong-Hua, 2011. "Remaining useful life estimation - A review on the statistical data driven approaches," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 1-14, August.
- Carr, Matthew J. & Wang, Wenbin, 2011. "An approximate algorithm for prognostic modelling using condition monitoring information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 211(1), pages 90-96, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:226:y:2013:i:1:p:53-66. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.