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Scheduling projects with stochastic activity duration to maximize expected net present value

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  • Sobel, Matthew J.
  • Szmerekovsky, Joseph G.
  • Tilson, Vera

Abstract

Although uncertainty is rife in many project management contexts, little is known about adaptively optimizing project schedules. We formulate the problem of adaptively optimizing the expected present value of a project's cash flow, and we show that it is practical to perform the optimization. The formulation includes randomness in activity durations, costs, and revenues, so the optimization leads to a recursion with a large state space even if the durations are exponentially distributed. We present an algorithm that partially exercises the "curse of dimensionality" as computational results demonstrate. Most of the paper is restricted to exponentially distributed task durations, but we sketch the adaptation of the algorithm to approximate any probability distribution of task duration.

Suggested Citation

  • Sobel, Matthew J. & Szmerekovsky, Joseph G. & Tilson, Vera, 2009. "Scheduling projects with stochastic activity duration to maximize expected net present value," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(3), pages 697-705, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:198:y:2009:i:3:p:697-705
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Jingwen & Elmaghraby, Salah E., 2014. "The relevance of the “alphorn of uncertainty” to the financial management of projects under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(1), pages 65-76.
    2. Peymankar, Mahboobeh & Davari, Morteza & Ranjbar, Mohammad, 2021. "Maximizing the expected net present value in a project with uncertain cash flows," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(2), pages 442-452.
    3. Illana Bendavid & Boaz Golany, 2009. "Setting gates for activities in the stochastic project scheduling problem through the cross entropy methodology," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 259-276, November.
    4. Yangyang Liang & Nanfang Cui & Tian Wang & Erik Demeulemeester, 2019. "Robust resource-constrained max-NPV project scheduling with stochastic activity duration," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 41(1), pages 219-254, March.
    5. Illana Bendavid & Boaz Golany, 2011. "Predetermined intervals for start times of activities in the stochastic project scheduling problem," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 186(1), pages 429-442, June.
    6. Stefan Creemers, 2019. "The preemptive stochastic resource-constrained project scheduling problem," Post-Print hal-02992618, HAL.
    7. Hazır, Öncü & Ulusoy, Gündüz, 2020. "A classification and review of approaches and methods for modeling uncertainty in projects," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    8. Etgar, Ran & Gelbard, Roy & Cohen, Yuval, 2017. "Optimizing version release dates of research and development long-term processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(2), pages 642-653.
    9. Creemers, Stefan, 2018. "Moments and distribution of the net present value of a serial project," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(3), pages 835-848.
    10. Öncü Hazir & Gündüz Ulusoy, 2020. "A classification and review of approaches and methods for modeling uncertainty in projects," Post-Print hal-02898162, HAL.
    11. Fatemeh Azimi & Fatemeh Fathallahi, 2016. "Fuzzy Multi Objective Project Scheduling Under Inflationary Conditions," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(3), pages 337-350.
    12. Illana Bendavid & Boaz Golany, 2011. "Setting gates for activities in the stochastic project scheduling problem through the cross entropy methodology," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 189(1), pages 25-42, September.
    13. Eli Gutin & Daniel Kuhn & Wolfram Wiesemann, 2015. "Interdiction Games on Markovian PERT Networks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(5), pages 999-1017, May.
    14. Alessio Angius & András Horváth & Marcello Urgo, 2021. "A Kronecker Algebra Formulation for Markov Activity Networks with Phase-Type Distributions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-22, June.
    15. Wenhui Zhao & Nicholas G. Hall & Zhixin Liu, 2020. "Project Evaluation and Selection with Task Failures," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(2), pages 428-446, February.
    16. Maciej Nowak & Tadeusz Trzaskalik, 2022. "A trade-off multiobjective dynamic programming procedure and its application to project portfolio selection," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 311(2), pages 1155-1181, April.
    17. Szmerekovsky, Joseph G. & Venkateshan, Prahalad & Simonson, Peter D., 2023. "Project scheduling under the threat of catastrophic disruption," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 784-794.
    18. Creemers, Stefan, 2019. "The preemptive stochastic resource-constrained project scheduling problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(1), pages 238-247.
    19. Hermans, Ben & Leus, Roel & Looy, Bart Van, 2023. "Deciding on scheduling, secrecy, and patenting during the new product development process: The relevance of project planning models," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    20. Creemers, Stefan, 2018. "Maximizing the expected net present value of a project with phase-type distributed activity durations: An efficient globally optimal solution procedure," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 16-22.
    21. Creemers, Stefan & De Reyck, Bert & Leus, Roel, 2015. "Project planning with alternative technologies in uncertain environments," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(2), pages 465-476.
    22. Kerkhove, L.-P. & Vanhoucke, M., 2017. "Optimised scheduling for weather sensitive offshore construction projects," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 66(PA), pages 58-78.

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