Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics
We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous-time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zhao, Zhibiao, 2010. "Density estimation for nonlinear parametric models with conditional heteroscedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 155(1), pages 71-82, March.
- Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996.
"Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1995. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," NBER Working Papers 5346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zhibiao Zhao, 2008. "Parametric and nonparametric models and methods in financial econometrics," Papers 0801.1599, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2008.
- Andersen, Torben G & Sorensen, Bent E, 1996. "GMM Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model: A Monte Carlo Study," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 328-352, July.
- Torben G. Andersen & Hyung-Jin Chung & Bent E. Sorensen, "undated". "EMM Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model: A Monte Carlo Study," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 6, Society for Computational Economics.
- Torben G. Andersen & Bent E. Sorensen, 1995. "GMM Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model: A Monte Carlo Study," Discussion Papers 95-19, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1995. "Back to the Future: Generating Moment Implications for Continuous-Time Markov Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 767-804, July.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Jose Alexandre Scheinkman, 1993. "Back to the Future: Generating Moment Implications for Continuous-Time Markov Processes," NBER Technical Working Papers 0141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yongmiao Hong, 2005. "Nonparametric Specification Testing for Continuous-Time Models with Applications to Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 37-84.
- Zhang, Lan & Mykland, Per A. & Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 2005. "A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility With Noisy High-Frequency Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1394-1411, December.
- Lan Zhang & Per A. Mykland & Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 2003. "A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility with Noisy High Frequency Data," NBER Working Papers 10111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fan, Yanqin & Li, Qi, 1996. "Consistent Model Specification Tests: Omitted Variables and Semiparametric Functional Forms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 865-890, July.
- Jianqing Fan, 2000. "Simultaneous Confidence Bands and Hypothesis Testing in Varying-coefficient Models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 715-731.
- Carmen Broto & Esther Ruiz, 2004. "Estimation methods for stochastic volatility models: a survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(5), pages 613-649, December.
- Ruiz, Esther & Broto, Carmen, 2002. "Estimation methods for stochastic volatility models: a survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws025414, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
- Stephen J. Taylor, 1994. "Modeling Stochastic Volatility: A Review And Comparative Study," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 183-204.
- Gao, Jiti & King, Maxwell, 2004. "Adaptive Testing In Continuous-Time Diffusion Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(05), pages 844-882, October.
- Hong, Yongmiao & White, Halbert, 1995. "Consistent Specification Testing via Nonparametric Series Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1133-1159, September.
- Ruiz, Esther, 1994. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 289-306, July.
- Johnston, Gordon J., 1982. "Probabilities of maximal deviations for nonparametric regression function estimates," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 402-414, September.
- Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
- Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
- Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
- Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)